(meteorobs) CAM results in 2014 and prospects for 2019

[Esko Lyytinen]

I also thank all the observers of this and also other modelers !
And I also thank Mikhail on the 2019 / 1939 trail encounter information, 
below !

My calculations and checkings of possible future encounters is very far 
from complete, but in a quick check I found that the 2009 trail would be 
encountered in 2019. These meteoroids would be with negative da0 (which 
would further complicate the prediction of rates) and the relevant part 
of the track passes in 2014 (about just now) within a few thousandths of 
au from the Earth. This disturbs the trail, so the fM is a lot smaller 
than typical for 2-rev trails. Can you Mikhail however verify this 
encounter when your time may allow, please :)

Esko

> Hello all,
>
> So, now we know that CAMs showed a small, but definite activity
> with ZHR about 15. Visual results are confirmed by radar observations
> in terms of activity presence. I would like to thank all observers
> that countributed to the CAM activity profile.
>
> These results are very valuable as it can be concluded now that
> cometary activity of 209P was very low in past two-three centures, as even such a
> favorable computed circumstances resulted only in that modest
> activity.
>
> The next return of CAMs can be expected in 2019 - this time the
> Earth encounters a relatively young 1939 trail. The timing
> is favorable for the USA again - 8:00 UT on 24 May 2019.
>
> Now the intensity of this activity can be predicted much more
> accurately, basing on the results of CAMs-2014, and it is expected to
> be very low, of course, with ZHR of ~5, with large share of bright
> meteors. Radiant would be almost the same: RA=123°, Dec=+80°. I suppose
> all such cases of unusual activity are interesting, as nothing is
> guaranteed in meteor astronomy. The Moon will be gibbous
> waning, but the evening sky will be free of moonlight, at least.
>
> Best regards,
> Mikhail Maslov
>
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