(meteorobs) Meteor outburst coming from Phoenicids 2014?

[karl.antier at laposte.net]

Dear Pierre and all,

I should try also to catch a few Phoenicids from South-Eastern France, just before the outburst is predicted to start, as the radiant will set around 23h UT here.
We won't get the best of the show if there's any, but I hope we will spot some nice earthgrazers.
I wish the show will show up for Southern hemisphere observers!

Clears skies!
Karl


----- Mail original -----
De: "Pierre Martin" <pmartin at teksavvy.com>
À: "Meteor science and meteor observing" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Envoyé: Mardi 25 Novembre 2014 03:15:55
Objet: (meteorobs) Meteor outburst coming from Phoenicids 2014?

Hello list,

About a month ago, Mikiya Sato informed us for possible significant Phoenicids activity in 2014!  We are now just a week away from this!

http://meteor.kaicho.net/PHO2014/
http://pasj.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/3/509.full.pdf+html

The model of Jérémie Vaubaillon however does not really show a significant outburst, although a few “grains” do appear near the predicted time.

http://www.imcce.fr/langues/en/ephemerides/phenomenes/meteor/DATABASE/Phoenicids/BIN-tout/Noeuds-Earth2014.jpg

Would the meteor forecasters have any new information or updates?

I intend to try and observe the display, despite the lunar interference and typically poor weather at this time of year.  From eastern Ontario, the radiant (located further north than the 1956 position) would be low but still well above my horizon during the predicted peak time (enough to detect something if it happens).  

Clear skies,
Pierre Martin





==================

Message: 4
Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 01:45:32 +0900
From: Mikiya Sato <
mail at kaicho.net
>
Subject: (meteorobs) Phoenicids 2014
To: Meteor science and meteor observing <
meteorobs at meteorobs.org
>
Message-ID: <20141012014532.2622e6b%
mail at kaicho.net
>

Dear all,

I am Mikiya Sato.
This year, an active shower of Phoenicids is expected on Dec.1-2.
I summarized the information of Phoenicids 2014 in web.


http://meteor.kaicho.net/PHO2014/


Main trails were formed by dust ejected in the early 20th century.
The peak time is forecasted to be between 23:00 on Dec. 1 and
 1:00 on Dec. 2. But whole peak will be continuous because of
low inclination of the orbit.

The highest activity is expected to be about 150 (HR).
But the activity will become smaller if the cometary activity
 of a parent body in the early 20th century was weak.
Recently, a cometary activity of the parent is very weak.
So, the hourly rate may become half or less.

We are planning the observation at La Palma in the Canary Islands.
But the observing condition is not so good.
I hope more observations.

Mikiya Sato

mail at kaicho.net


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