(meteorobs) Early bright LYRs

[karl.antier at laposte.net]

Hi all meteor observers,

I do not know if this event may be linked to this. But it was written in the 2015 Meteor Shower Calendar of the IMO (http://imo.net/files/data/calendar/cal2015.pdf) that Esko Lyytinen somewhat predicted that there may be enhanced rates of the Lyrid shower in 2016 and 2017, as the Earth will come close to the one-revolution dust trail from C/1861 G1 Thatcher. In 2015, such enhanced rates were not as sure, as they would probably rely on some older trails which could not be modelled as accurately as the 1-rev. trail.
"For 2015, meteor scientist Esko Lyytinen has suggested the possibility that Lyrid rates may be somewhat enhanced, although from theoretical modelling, the chances of this seem better – if still uncertain – for 2016 and 2017. The 2015 possibility is heavily dependent on what other dust trails pass closer to the Earth than the trail established from the one observed
return of the shower’s parent comet, C/1861 G1 Thatcher, some thing which cannot be modelled." (etracted from the IMO 2015 Meteor Shower calendar, pp.6-7)

Stain tuned!
Clear skies!
Karl


----- Mail original -----
De: "Josep Maria Trigo" <trigo at ieec.uab.es>
À: "Meteor science and meteor observing" <meteorobs at meteorobs.org>
Envoyé: Mardi 21 Avril 2015 14:17:57
Objet: Re: (meteorobs) Early bright LYRs

george wrote:

>Maybe this may mean that we will have enhanced activity this year?  Any predictions
>or thoughts about this?
>  
>
    Richard and George,

    The SPMN has also detected very bright events, and one of the 
brightest ones is posted in our fireball list:
http://www.spmn.uji.es/ESP/SPMNlist.html

    Regards,
***************************************************
 Dr. Josep M. Trigo-Rodríguez
 Tenured Scientist CSIC
 P.I. ICE Group on Meteorites, Minor bodies, and Planetary Sciences
 Group research goals: 
http://www.ice.csic.es/en/view_research_line.php?RID=16
 Peer-review papers: http://www.spmn.uji.es/ESP/ICE_Meteorite_group.html
 Institute of Space Sciences (ICE, CSIC-IEEC)
 Campus UAB, Carrer de Can Magrans s/n, (Bellaterra)
 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallés (Barcelona), SPAIN
 E-mail: trigo at ice.csic.es
 Telephone: +34 93 7379788, Ext: 933069 (lab:933081)
***************************************************

_______________________________________________
meteorobs mailing list
meteorobs at meteorobs.org
http://lists.meteorobs.org/mailman/listinfo/meteorobs