(meteorobs) Re : Leonids-2015

chrismlt at laposte.net chrismlt at laposte.net
Sun Nov 8 16:08:00 EST 2015


Dear All, Sergey,

Unfortunately none of the predicted fabulous ZHR for the period 2006-2011, ranging from 250 to 600 depending on the year, as read in this paper, was ever seen. It seems that all of this quite over-optimistic and needs to be updated. 
Anyway, just in case, we have to have a look.

Christophe

----- Mail d'origine -----De: Shanov Sergey <shanov-2004 at yandex.ru>&Agrave;: meteorobs at meteorobs.orgEnvoy&eacute;: Sun, 08 Nov 2015 12:04:54 +0100 (CET)Objet: (meteorobs) Leonids-2015

Good day.

Viewing one of the publications Jeremie Vaubaillon: http://cdsads.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005A%26A...439..761V&link_type=ARTICLE&db_key=AST&high=42c2e2305f18848  It is possible to see the prognosis of activity Leonids on 2015. There are circumstances of collision with cometary by trails 769, 636 years. The first maximum is expected on November 19 around 22:52 UT with ZHR ~20. The second, more interesting maximum, is expected on November 23 around 2:51 UT with ZHR ~100!. It means, that the stream can appear is similar Perseids. The prognosis can appear not precise for such old cometary of trails, as on time, and meteoric activity. It would be interesting to compare these outcomes to the data of other models.

Sergey

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