(meteorobs) Meteors from close comet approaches in late March?

[Roberto Gorelli]

On Sun, 13 Mar 2016 21:00:24 -0400
  Paul Zeller <pzeller1966 at gmail.com> wrote:
>  Hello all. I was just reading an interesting article from 
>EarthSky.org
> about two faint comets that will be passing fairly close to Earth 
>late this
> month; Comet 252P/LINEAR 12 on March 21 and Comet P/2016 BA14 (which 
>could
> be a fragment from 252/P) on March 22.
> 
>  The article briefly mentioned a slight possibility of meteors from 
>these
> comets. It says that there could be some on March 20 from the second 
>comet
> and some around March 28-30 from 252/P. I'm not sure of the accuracy 
>of
> these dates.
> 
>  I was curious if anyone on the list knew whereabouts the radiant for
> these showers would be, should they develop? Thanks in advance!
> 
>  Paul Z.

Sorry for the bad English,

           following the past answers I want to continue the topic.
           I want to create a new definition: the "cometary torus".
           We are in presence of a special case where a comet splitted 
in two (?) bodies as Biela comet
           do in the XIX century doing after a some years a new meteor 
shower, the Andromedids.
           I considered the orbital elements of the two comets 
(252P/Linear and P/2016 BA14 Panstarrs)
           as two meteors, then I calculate the medium (M) of their 
orbital elements then I utilised a
           little software do by M. Langbroek ( 
http://marcolangbroek.tripod.com/metsoft.html , authors
           M. Langbroek, M. de Lignie and C. ter Kuile, Dutch Meteor 
Society, ref:  Drummond J.D.
           (1981), A test of comet and meteor shower associations. 
Icarus 45, 545-553) and I calculated
           the D (Drummond) criterium for this two comets (in effect 
we should utilise a minimum of 10
           bodies for this work, better with 100, but we have not so 
hight number of comets) and I found
           the following values: 0,0250 (252P) and 0,0257 (P/2016 
BA14), this values show surelly that
           the two comets come from a unique parent body, seeing their 
nucleus volumes (˜ 1/3.3, this
           coming from the rapport from their M2, absolute magnitude 
of comet nucleus) it's probable in
           effect that P/2016 BA14 it's only a fragment of 252P (it's 
too near sure that numerous littlest
           fragments was detached during the splitting, I invite all 
people that can reach 20a and more
           magnitude to search they in the present day).
           The two comets should create two new meteor showers (it's 
not sure that this year it occur
           meteor showers):

           252P: the Mu Leporidi or P\2000 G1 LINEAR-ids ( 
http://feraj.narod.ru/Radiants/Predictions/1901-2100eng/p2000g1-ids2001-2020eng.html)
           at 05 H 11 M 48 S, -16° the 28 March, Vg 11 km/s;

           P/2016 BA14: the March Columbids at 05 H 26 M, -39° the 21 
March, Vg 14,15 km/s.
  
           The two meteor showers should to have a low speed as the 
famous Andromedids, but it's too
           possible that this meteor showers shall see only some years 
in the future, perharps around
           2037 when the two comets should be in the near same 
positions toward the Earth that this year
           and their torus shall be more large that today until touch 
the Earth.
           It's possible too that it shall be a unique meteor shower 
with elements between the two
           calculated showers and containg very big bodies with 
diameters until some meters.

                        252          BA1            M

           q        0,99613676    1,00851975     1,002328255
           e        0,67361419    0,66549269     0,66955344
           i       10,40459790   18,92777583    14,666186865
           omega  343,28974118  351,84248410   347,56611264
           nodo   190,98143231  180,54156748   185,761499895

           D         0,0250        0,0257

           M2       22,7          24,2  (M2 = absolute magnitude of 
comet nucleus)

           http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=252P&orb=1 
           (orbital element of 3 August 2015)

           http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=P%2F2016+BA14&orb=1 
(orbital element of 31 January 2016)

Best greetings.
Roberto Gorelli