(meteorobs) Reference on alpha-Monocerotid potential activity in 2016/2017 ?

Esko Lyytinen esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi
Wed Sep 21 06:30:21 EDT 2016


Hi all,

According to my calculations, the  1-rev. trail would now pass about 
0.001 au ( 0.0009 ) outside the Earth orbit, which is quite close but 
probably too far for an actual outburst to occur.
Next year this would pass about 0.001 au inside the Earth orbit.
According to this, the year 2019 would be the most promising of nearby 
years, the trail passing a few units of 0.0001 inside the Earth orbit.

However, it may be reasonable also to observe in this year and 2017 
besides 2019.
In this year I have the most close passage at solar longitude 239,648 . 
This is very close to the timing of Mikiya Sato, as copied to this from 
the first email for this from Karl  "

  "Mikiya Sato's very recent modelling hints at a possible dust trail approach on
November 21st, 21h 26m. Activity may expected if some activity occurs a
year ahead on 2016 November, 18h 30m."

I get the mentioned sol.long. to 18:26 UT.


This calculation assumes that the encounter in 1995 was a central one, 
which also gives good post-predictions for the years 1925, 1935, and 1985.
But we can not know uf that really was very central and this could make 
either this year or next year somewhat more favorable than appears from 
the calculated numers. So, anything possibly observed could give some 
more data on where precisely does the trail pass. The timing is expected 
to be accurate well enough for observations.

Regards,
Esko


On Wed, 21 Sep 2016 07:38:26 +0000
>    "Karl Antier" <karl.antier at laposte.net> wrote:
>> Thanks for your answer Michael,
>>
>> It seems the news came from a discussion between Jürgen rendtel and
>> Mikiya Sato during the last "Meteoroids 2016". Below is the message
>> Jürgen sent to the IMO-News mailing list.
>> I contacted Mikiya Sato by e-mail, but did not receive an answer
>> yet; I will let you all know when I receive one, or if Mikiya can
>> answer on the list, that would be great!
>> Anyway, let's all gop out an observe the AMO, depsite the bad Moon
>> interferences! Just in case anything happen, and could be of value
>> for 2017 AMO predictions!
>>
>> Clear skies!
>> Karl
> You must remember that AMO in the past occured each time in twin
> meteor rains separed by 10 years and that should occur for the
> positions in the years before of Jupiter and Saturn, then the question
> is:
> that planets were in the right position for a meteor rain in 2016 or
> 2017?
> In the past the rains occured in 1925 and 1935 and in 1985 and 1995,
> when occur the next couple?
> If it occur you should remember that the entire rain is long ONLY 20
> minutes at maximum, then you must to be READY, really ready, if you
> want observe it, do you remember "minuteman"? The US soldiers that
> were ready in one minute? You must to do the same if you want enjoy
> the AMO, it has until more 3 meteors each minute!
> Best greetings.
> Roberto Gorelli
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