(meteorobs) Reference on alpha-Monocerotid potential activity in 2016/2017 ?

[Roberto Gorelli]

On Wed, 21 Sep 2016 10:30:21 +0000
  Esko Lyytinen <esko.lyytinen at jippii.fi> wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> According to my calculations, the  1-rev. trail would now pass about 
> 0.001 au ( 0.0009 ) outside the Earth orbit, which is quite close 
>but 
> probably too far for an actual outburst to occur.
> Next year this would pass about 0.001 au inside the Earth orbit.
> According to this, the year 2019 would be the most promising of 
>nearby 
> years, the trail passing a few units of 0.0001 inside the Earth 
>orbit.
> 
> However, it may be reasonable also to observe in this year and 2017 
> besides 2019.
> In this year I have the most close passage at solar longitude 
>239,648 . 
> This is very close to the timing of Mikiya Sato, as copied to this 
>from 
> the first email for this from Karl  "
> 
>  "Mikiya Sato's very recent modelling hints at a possible dust trail 
>approach on
> November 21st, 21h 26m. Activity may expected if some activity 
>occurs a
> year ahead on 2016 November, 18h 30m."
> 
> I get the mentioned sol.long. to 18:26 UT.
> 
> 
> This calculation assumes that the encounter in 1995 was a central 
>one, 
> which also gives good post-predictions for the years 1925, 1935, and 
>1985.
> But we can not know uf that really was very central and this could 
>make 
> either this year or next year somewhat more favorable than appears 
>from 
> the calculated numers. So, anything possibly observed could give 
>some 
> more data on where precisely does the trail pass. The timing is 
>expected 
> to be accurate well enough for observations.
> 
> Regards,
> Esko

As I remember (I can to be in mistake but I have not the exact data 
now) the 1995 was perfect for Europe then because the year has 365,25 
day the same should to be in 2015, the 2016 should to be the
perfect year for North and South America, the 2017 for Hawaii and 
Australia and perharps too for Japan.
I want only add that the parent body is unknown, probably is a comet
with a long period (thousands years), a big rain could annonce the 
arrival of the comet after 1-3 years as occured for Perseids.
Best greetings.
Roberto Gorelli