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The short communication below was prepared for WGN, the journal of IMO, but
too late to be incorporated in the June issue. A version of it was 
posted on the www pages of the Dutch Meteor Society:
(http://www.pidot net/~terkuile/meteors/dms.htm). This may be of some 
interest to southern observers, in Africa and South America. 

-Peter Jenniskens

------

An opportunity to see another meteor outburst: the kappa-Pavonids.

P. Jenniskens

NASA/Ames Research Center 

ABSTRACT - A meteor stream that was observed by two Australian observers in
1986 may return in 1996. The planets are in a favorable configuration again
for a trail of dust to intersect the Earth's orbit. As a result, there may
be an outburst of kappa-Pavonids, that will last only a little over an hour
and which may
peak at 1 meteor/minute, somewhere between 22h and 04h UT 
in the night of July 16/17, 1996.
Because of the southern declination of
the stream, best observing conditions are from eastern South America and
South Africa.   

In 1986, the stream of kappa-Pavonids produced a brief
outburst in the evening of July 17 (Wood 1986).  
Observers Niel Inwood and Paul Stacy
recorded 26 and 30 kappa-Pavonids respectively, and 4 and 6 sporadic
meteors, between 11:50 and 13:00 UT that night 
(from Karnet 116.1E,-32.2S). The observing 
conditions were not perfect: the Moon was almost in the zenith and 
80 percent illuminated.  
The meteors were reported to be slow (V = 20-25 km/s?) 
and radiated from a (corrected) radiant at
RA,DEC = 275,-67. 14% of the meteors left a persistent train. .
The two observers together had (Lm = 5.7, from +4 down): 2,7,11,13,9,6,6,2
meteors. 
The peak Zenith Hourly Rate may have been about ZHR = 60 (Jenniskens 1995). 

This year, in the night of July 16/17 1996, the outburst may occur
again, because the reflex motion of the Sun (which is thought to reflect the 
sum of planetary perturbations on a trail of dust - Jenniskens 1996) is
nearly the same as in 1986. A similar forecast for the alpha-Monocerotid
outburst last November proved correct. I should warn, however, that this
kappa-Pavonid stream has only been reported once and it is not certain 
that the stream is of "far-comet" type. Also, even if it is of far-comet
type, there may be some amount of chance involved for the trail to
interect the Earth's path.

Last year, a dedicated photographic observing campaign was held near Pretoria,
South Africa, with the help of amateur observers of the meteor section
of ASSA (Tim Cooper, c.s.). 
The annual activity of this
stream was found to be very low (ZHRmax < 1), with no more than a single
possible stream member identified. 

This year's observing conditions are best
for eastern South America, although the outburst can also be observed from
South Africa. The outburst is expected between solar longitude 114.00 and
114.23 in Eq. 1950.0 (22-04 UT), 
with a maximum at about 114.10-114.13 (about 01 UT), if the peak is
at the same time as in
1986. The Moon will not disturb: it is a new Moon. 
Photographic observations can be
successful, given the large number of bright kappa-Pavonids observed in 1986.  
Dedicated observations are planned once more, supported by meteor
observers in Porto Alegre (Gilberto Klar Renner c.s.) and by members of the 
Dutch Meteor Society (Hans Betlem c.s.). 
Observers who want to participate in this effort
can contact the author at peter@max.arc.nasadot gov.  

[1] Wood J., 1986, NAPO-MS Bulletin no. 121 and 118
[2] Jenniskens P., 1995, Astron. Astrophys. 295, 206-235.
[3] Jenniskens P., 1996, Astron. Astrophys. (in press)  

..........................................................................
 
 Peter Jenniskens       
             
   The SETI Institute                    e-mail: peter@max.arc.nasadot gov       
   NASA Ames Research Center                tel: (415) 604-3086
   Mail Stop 239-4                          fax: (415) 604-1088
   Moffett Field, CA  94035-1000