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(meteorobs) Munley's tropical and local predictions (USA)
A half-day out of date now, but some valuable info in both of these messages,
especially the ray of hope from a cold front early next week...
Lew
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From: Munley <71435.211@CompuServedot com>
Date: 05 Sep 96 19:44:24 EDT
Subject: Tropical Discussion Sep 5
Hurricane Fran is getting ready to make landfall in the Carolinas in the
vicinity of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast tonight. Fran continues
to move to the north northwest at 16 mph and is expected to turn to the north
which may be already occurring tonight or Friday. Fran is expected to make
landfall between 10pm and 12am EDT. Hurricane force winds are beginning to
spread across the warning area. Winds of 100 mph are expected to spread 100
miles inland. Satellite pictures indicate than Fran has not increase in
strength during the past 24 hours and cloud tops have warmed. The current wind
structure will bring winds of 100 mph and a high storm surge to spread over a
large area to the northeast. At present the track is beginning to move slightly
to the right and continues to wobble according to radar. The current track from
the NHC takes Fran through the Carolina on Friday and then across the central
Appalachians of Virginia and West Virginia Friday night. There is the
possibility that Fran may not move west of the Appalachians and may slow down as
it bumps into the upper ridge over the northern mid-Atlantic. If this occurs
then heavy rains that should be west of the mountains may spread further east.
Tropical depression 8 is located 610 miles east of the lesser Antilllies.
Jim Munley Jr.
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From: Munley <71435.211@CompuServedot com>
Date: 05 Sep 96 19:44:43 EDT
Subject: 5-Day Forecast Sep 6-10
Height falls in the Gulf of Alaska and strong height rises over the Pacific
Northwest . This will result in a zonal flow across southern Canada. Height
rises over the northern part of the nation and below normal heights across the
southern U.S. Hurricane Fran us getting ready to make landfall in the Carolinas
tonight in the vicinity of the South Carolina and North Carolina border. The
current NHC track Takes Fran on a track through North Carolina on Friday and
then across the central Appalachians into Virginia and West Virginia Friday
night. Winds will increase steadily through the evening with gust to hurricane
force likely tonight over North Carolina. Significant beach erosion is possible
as widespread costal increases in association with the storm surge. As Fran
moves inland Friday heavy rains are expected to push north into North Carolina,
Virginia and West Virginia east of the mountains. Widespread heavy rainfall is
expected over the mid-Atlantic as the remnants move inland. There is a chance
that Fran may not make it west of the mountains and there is the possibility
that it may slow as it bumps into the upper ridge across the northern
mid-Atlantic. Tropical moisture and upslope flow is expected to result in
significant rainfall especially in the central Appalachians region where a
strong easterly flow will be advecting. Amounts of greater than 2 inches are
expected over a large area with amounts over 10 inches over western North
Carolina. The current forecast track is expected to cause widespread flooding
north and east of the center. Rain over southeast North Carolina of 5 to 10
inches and most of virginia are expected. Moist upslope continues to strengthen
ahead of Fran and convection will increase through the evening and after the
recent heavy rain in the central Appalachians any additional rain could result
in significant flooding threat. Strong rain bands are approaching the South
Carolina and North Carolina and there will be the risk of isolated tornadoes
along and mainly northeast of the center will increase. Moisture from Fran is
expected to linger over the East with heavy rain and convection likely over the
mid-Atlantic as a weak disturbance and upper level cooling and daytime heating
along with high dew points and a southerly flow could result in diurnal
convection. A cold front will approach Monday and with moisture hanging over
the East may support heavy convection. The front will clear the region by
Tuesday.
Jim Munley Jr.
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