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(meteorobs) Spring In December Continues... <12/29 10AM EST> (fwd)
Thought ya all might like this ... Mike
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---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sun, 29 Dec 1996 11:18:19 -0400
From: Gary Gray & Gregory Maley <gdmgeg@smartdot net>
To: wxobs-mda <wxobs-mda@greatbasin.com>, wxobs-sne <wxobs-sne@shoredot net>
Subject: Spring In December Continues... <12/29 10AM EST>
...Springtime Continues In Northeast <12/29 11AM EST>...
There's been some talk of a return to winter in the Northeast by Tue
through Thu this week. We need to keep things in perspective. Temps
across the NE the past few days have been running some 20+F above
normal in many areas. This "cold" weather coming in by midweek the
week is only relatively cold, but should still end up being some 5F
above normal. That's close enough to normal so that some folks may
end up cold enough to snow, but this is still far from seasonable cold.
The biggest reason for the lack of winter here in the NE U.S. is the
firehose jet stream screaming into the Pacific Coast. The winter-
favorable high latitude Greenland block is in place and would aid in
any trof development in the NE (though it's not in perfect position as
it stretches a bit too far NE, towards Iceland). However, the Pacific
flow is making the high latitude flow be completely disjointed from the
mid-latitudes.
Needless to say, there's little to talk about and the MRF is even
warmer in the long range than yesterday (it had normal temps by about
D+8 yesterday, now it doesn't show normal temps until the "guess range"
around D+10 with periods of extreme warmth among the generally mild
weather). At any rate, here's a quick look at a few of the models...
MRF: On the meteograms the MRF is showing our temperatures moderating
to a mere 5-10F above normal by midweek this week. Then by the weekend
it's nice and toasty again, about 15+F above normal. Thereafter, the
MRF shows another moderation and warmup before finally having temps
drop to normal levels by D+10. In the temperature moderations the MRF
does get some areas (mainly NY & New England) cold enough for just a
touch of snow, though no big storms are seen on the meteograms. On the
maps the MRF shows a weak front coming through the NE. A weak sfc low
develops on the front, but fairly well offshore. Then by the end of
the weak another low sweeps to our W, bringing warm air and rain
(possibly starting as a mix up in NY and New England). Then the front
comes through with no secondary development. By the end of the weekend
the MRF has a storm deepening out in the W U.S. and bringing a fairly
strong ridge into the E U.S. Finally, by the end of the period (D+10)
the MRF brings a front through with a weak trof settling into the NE.
ECMWF: The EC is slightly more interesting than the MRF, but only
slightly. The EC sweeps the early/mid week cold front through a little
sooner than the MRF, bringing it through on Monday. Cold air is quite
limited, though, and secondary development on the EC near NJ would
likely only bring snows to interior NY and New England. That's it.
After that the EC shows near normal temps by Wed with warming
conditions Thu and then a mild, rainy cold front coming through late
Thu into early Fri.
My thinking: Well, what can I say?!? Through the next week or two
the weather in the NE U.S. looks generally mild and not very winter-
like. Some post-frontal snows associated with secondary development
is possible in NY and New England, but mainly interior sections of
New England and interior eastern sections of NY. However, with the
flow being WSW this low will be swept out to sea quickly and any snow
will be rather light. By late week another weak front looks lined up
to come through the NE. We should warm up before it comes through and
see mainly rain with the frontal passage. There is absolutely no
significant winter weather in the forecast for the NE U.S.!
-Gary