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Re: (meteorobs) Probabilities of REALLY BIG fireballs...
Kevin,
I agree with you. There is no 100% safe from impact threat and the very
worse case can not be prevented. Worse case being a very large impactor
appearing out blue with little or no lead time. Of cause when I said that
"I do not care who is right" I was refering to between the
neo-catastrophist or the neo-uniformitarianist statistics of the impact
rate. If the hammer of god should appear then only those living off the
planet and self sufficient will survive. The survivors of the extinction
size impact may be living on a space station as the international space
station, a moon base in the future or as Gene Shoemaker thought a base on a
large asteroid out in solar system which is used as a stepping stone to
exploring the outer planets. Living self sufficiently off the planet may
be our only option when preparing for the worse case hoping for a better
case that can prevent impact. The former result will be little consolation
to the billions of people who will die out right or exist in a living hell
on Earth till the end came to there existence. Only species extinction will
be prevented for the time being if man goes on to recolonize the planet at
a future date. Even then the problem still remains. Earthlings now know
we and our planet exist in a hostile environment and we can no longer go
back to thinking otherwise.
Clear skies is a good way to end and the perfect request,
Victor
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Victor Noto - Kissimmee, Florida USA
vnn2@phoenixat.com
http://www.phoenixat.com/~vnn2/BIGROCK.htm
Website theme quote:
"Life really is a Rock and
the Big Rock giveth and taketh away all life!!"
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> From: KevTK@aol.com
> To: meteorobs@latrade.com
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Probabilities of REALLY BIG fireballs...
> Date: Wednesday, February 11, 1998 1:37 PM
>
> In a message dated 98-02-10 12:03:23 EST, you write:
>
> << Personally I do not care who is right only that we plan for the worse
case
> and hope for the best case. Kind of what we do when we buy insurance.
> >>
>
> IMHO I don't think there's a way we CAN plan for worst case senario. It
was a
> few years ago (don't remember exactly) when a piece of rock came sailing
> fairly close to us about the moons orbit diameter away (very close) and
we
> didn't even spot it until 3 days AFTER it went by. There's just not
enough CCD
> cameras scanning the skies. We're just fish in a barrel.
> I'm sure everyone's heard the analogy that there are more people behind
the
> counter of one McDonalds then there are people worldwide scanning the
skies
> for hunks of rock.
> Arthur C. Clarke's book "The Hammer of God'" is truely a sci-fi story.
The
> story is they discovered an asteroid heading for Earth. They had 1 years
> notice. Won't happen in real life. We don't need a dino-killer, just
think
> that the Meteor Crater in AZ (few thousand feet wide, six hundred feet
deep)
> was made by an asteroid only the size of a subway car (75 feet long).
What
> would happen if it landed in downtown NYC, Chicago, L.A. or Dallas?
>
> Kevin