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Re: (meteorobs) Hello meteorobs



Andrew Simmons wrote:

> Since then I've maintained an armchair interest in astronomy,
> amongst lots of other things. I now live in central London 
> which makes visual observations of anything except Venus, half
> a dozen of the brighest stars and hypothetical close 
> supernovas problematic to say the least ! 

John Isles used to observe naked-eye and binocular variable stars from
Long Acre (near Covent Garden).

> 1966 storm. We're now planning to get out of London in Nov., too. 
> (Has anyone any suggestions for good observing sites ? the Canary
> Islands ? I know that the ideal location would be further east, 
> possibly in China - but I don't think I can afford that :(  .)

There are three aspects of choosing a location for the 1998 Leonids.

a) a location where the predictions indicate you *might* see an
   outburst;

b) find somewhere free of sky pollution; and

c) somewhere where it has a high probability of being clear.

Some of these may be combined.  There are sites in the UK which
satisfy b), but they fail criterion c).  There are some dark sites in
the Netherlands, but what's the odds of clear skies Marco?  Personally,
if I wasn't going to be watching from Hawaii, I'd try the south of
France (e.g. Puimichel) or up a mountain in the Canary Islands, for
which the charter fares are reasonable.

> To close with something back on topic - re: the possibility of
> a significant or catastrophic impact in the future :
> 
> 4. As far as I know, *no* impact significant enough to make it
> into recorded history has happened in the 6000-odd years of 
> human society.

Remember that most of the people that have ever lived, lived during
this century.  Civilisation was concentrated in a few pockets (e.g.
Mediterranean and China) for much of this time.  The probability of
one of these being struck is extremely small.  If you like, one could
speculate along the lines of no smoke without fire, that Atlantis
existed and was destroyed by a tsunami.  Even in this century,
it took years before the effect of the Tunguska event were known
around the world. 

There is also the superstition/religion/cultural aspect.  Do we know
whether such events would be recorded, even if observed?  It's
fascinating to compare different cultures regarding the recording of
astronomical/astrological events.  For example, why wasn't the
supernova in 1054 more widely reported outside of the Orient?

If we're talking about objects which could kill thousands of people,
their frequency is such that we haven't been monitoring the *globe*
long enough to tell.  We only know of two such impacts (please correct
me if I'm wrong) during the last century or so.

Malcolm

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