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Re: (meteorobs) Re: potentially hazardous objects (PHA's)

> In your message dated Friday 20, February 1998 you wrote :
> > 
> >  To All List Members:
> > 
> > Recently I have been posting warnings of doom from near Earth object
> > impactors to members of this list to see what kind of reaction I could get
> > from a group of people most likely to be responsive to such matters.
> 
> (snip...snip)

[many good arguments deleted]

> Let's not get paranoid about this hazard!

I perfectly agree with Phil and Wayne!

After all, the fact that we are living and communicationg proves, that the
last really devasting impact threatening all mankind was at least several
million years ago. We should really not get paranoid and fear the next one
would happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
It is right that NEO research is important, but I rather doubt that panic
making is a proper way to get the own research funded.

This reminds me to a silly number I came across several times in public
lectures about meteorite impacts. I think it was even to be found in a
recent issue of S&T: On average, each year (!!) about 20 humans are killed
by large meteorite impacts.

You didn't know that? Well, the equation is quite simple: It is considered
that the really big blasts happen about every hundred million years or so.
At such occasions, a third of all mankind may die. 2 billion divided by a
hundred million gives an average of 20 casulties per year...

Of course, such an equation is *complete* nonsense, it's like raping
statistics, but you find that again and again!

Sirko

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*  Dipl.-Inform. Sirko Molau                  *                          *
*  RWTH Aachen, Lehrstuhl fuer Informatik VI  *                          *
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