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(meteorobs) 1997 XF11 and the press + meteors from XF11?
Having spoken to some journalists about 1997 XF11, there are a couple of
themes that crop up;
a) Is this scaremongering?
b) Should we be worried?
The answer to the first question is very simple. An announcement has
to be made if this sort of uncertainty is indicated for both astronomical and
social reasons. The astronomical reasons are obvious; concerted campaign of
astrometry, search for pre-discoveries, physical studies etc. Note that no
reports of the colour or albedo have been made to my knowledge, so the size
is only known in the range 1 to 4 km, assuming typical high and low albedos.
Having made an announcement to the astronomical community, it is obvious that
this will become a major story, and the press release by Marsden was
suitably factual. The question of the size of the uncertainty is one of
when a general announcement should be made. Clearly very little work was
being done on the asteroid, and if the latest data indicate a close approach
to the Earth in the future a request for more observations must be made and
the reasons given. It has already been put to me in a live radio interview
that the discovery was "kept under wraps" until yesterday and this is just
scaremongering! You're damned if you do and damned if you don't!
Should we be worried? No, not at this stage, but we
should certainly take the possibility seriously and act to determine more
accurately what the threat really is. When the asteroid goes out of
observability in May I would be concerned if the probability of a collision
with the Earth was not significantly lessened with the addition of more
astrometry.
What is in this for meteor observers? Perhaps some collisional debris
exists in the vicinity of the asteroid. A very close approach will possibly
produce a few meteors. I'll make a prediction later today on the
circumstances of any meteor shower in 2028.
Rob McNaught
(rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au)