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(meteorobs) In Defense of the Marsden's XF11 Press Release
In Defense of the Marsden's XF11 Press Release:
So here we go again analyzing another fireball only this time it's a media
press release by a very hard working and respected member of the science
community that went around the world like a burning rock. Will there be
an impact from this press release fireball or not will be answered very
quickly at the 29th Lunar and Planetary Conference dedicated to the memory
of Eugene M. Shoemaker held on March 16-20, 1998 in Houston, TX.
There are a small group of NEO researchers that have been manning the
trenches in a very forward post in defense of the planet and Brian Marsden
of cfa Harvard Smithsonian and International Astronomical Union is one of
their Generals with his hand on the very trip wire of early warning. Brian
has been at this task a very long time and has seen many large and small
rocks close approach calculation and literal events to this old planet.
This close approach grabbed the attention of a person familiar and perhaps
a little jaded to close approaches of asteroids and comets. Brian took
action as he should have. Who are we to second guess his opinion of such
events for which he spends his every waking moment studying. In fact the
world did take notice of Brian's words because it came from a highly
respected member of the science community and the ultimate insider of near
Earth asteroid survey and research.
As Tom Gehrels said just today "Brian is the insider who does most of the
work and for that he works night and day, literally, because whenever we
need him, he's always there."
NASA JPL went to work immediately on his word of close approach as they
should - hunting old images taken by astronomical observations back in the
archives to finally in 1990 something turned up. The calculation made by
Brian's associate Gareth Williams at cfa Harvard with this new data showed
that the orbit was slightly different than calculated with limited data
originally used and thus the miss turned out to be greater. Does anyone
realize that this calculation could have just as well showed that this
asteroid XF11 could have impacted Earth on that same day in 2028. No. But
there are those in the US government who do know and were very relieved
because they have been planning a for over a year on what to do if such an
event as an asteroid predicted impact should arise. Thus far the people
studying this question have no answers.
There was a general relief at NASA and the US Pentagon that it fizzled this
time,
and a greater awareness that it could be for real next time. Brian is a
hero if this added awareness leads to additional action.
I can not think of a more unjust reward if Brian is now accused, after all
his effort in this field of Astrophysics, of crying wolf, an alarmist or
even of announcing too soon. Brian did the right thing in calling for
additional observation and study of archives and it paid off very quickly.
Brian like all forward looking and acting soldiers has his supporters and
detractors. The wording of the title of that original JPL press release
was most likely the work of one of his detractors at JPL.
I for one want to know as soon as possible if the world is in danger.
For those who want to thank Brian, you know where to find him day and
night, the Minor Planet Center. http://cfa-www.harvarddot edu/cfa/ps/mpc.html
Please email, write and call in your support of Brian
Victor
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Victor Noto - Kissimmee, Florida USA
vnn2@phoenixat.com
http://www.phoenixat.com/~vnn2/BIGROCK.htm
Website theme quote:
"Life really is a Rock and
the Big Rock giveth and taketh away all life!!"
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