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(meteorobs) Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 April
>From: Cary Oler <oler@holly.cc.ulethdot ca>
>Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 April
>To: normd@directcondot net
>Date: Sat, 11 Apr 1998 01:53:04 -0600 (MDT)
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
> 10 APRIL, 1998
>
> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
> (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
>
>
>SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 APRIL, 1998
>---------------------------------------------------------
>
>!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 100, 04/10/98
>10.7 FLUX=129.7 90-AVG=103 SSN=145 BKI=2223 2433 BAI=012
>BGND-XRAY=B4.8 FLU1=2.2E+06 FLU10=2.1E+04 PKI=2223 2433 PAI=011
> BOU-DEV=010,012,006,013,010,039,015,006 DEV-AVG=013 NT SWF=00:000
> XRAY-MAX= C2.1 @ 0214UT XRAY-MIN= B3.5 @ 1631UT XRAY-AVG= B5.1
>NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
> PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
>BOUTF-MAX=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-MIN=00000NT @ 0000UT BOUTF-AVG=00000NT
>GOES9-MAX=P:+134NT@ 1938UT GOES9-MIN=N:-002NT@ 0848UT
G9-AVG=+086,+022,+013
>GOES8-MAX=P:+145NT@ 1515UT GOES8-MIN=N:-014NT@ 2152UT
G8-AVG=+091,+051,-001
> FLUXFCST=STD:128,026,026;SESC:128,026,026
BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,013,010
> KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=010,018 27DAY-KP=2122 3333 5452
3223
> WARNINGS=*SWF
> ALERTS=
>!!END-DATA!!
>
>NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 APR 98 is not available.
> The Full Kp Indices for 10 APR 98 are: 2o 2o 2- 3- 2o 4- 3o 3+
> The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 10 APR 98 are: 8 9 7 11 8 24 16 17
> Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 10 APR is: 7.8E+05
> DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 133.3, 129.7, 127.9
sfu.
>
>
>SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
>--------------------
>
> Solar activity was low. Small C-class subflares continue
> from a variety of active Regions. The largest of these, which
> was associated with an optical report, was a C1/SF at 10/1102Z
> in Region 8199 (S28W42). Growth in Region 8200 (S22W07) is
> slowing as the region matures into a small D-type sunspot
> group.
>
> Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
> low to moderate. C-class flares are possible from Regions 8193
> (S23W38), 8194 (S17E10), 8195 (S25E18), 8198 (S28E36), 8199
> (S28W42), and 8200 (S22W07). All of these regions are also
> capable of an isolated M-class flare.
>
> The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Active
> conditions were observed at several stations during the
> 10/1500-1800UT period.
>
> Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
> expected to be quiet to unsettled.
>
> Event probabilities 11 apr-13 apr
>
> Class M 30/30/30
> Class X 01/01/01
> Proton 01/01/01
> PCAF Green
>
> Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 apr-13 apr
>
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 15/15/15
> Minor Storm 10/10/10
> Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
>
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 15/15/15
> Minor Storm 10/10/10
> Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
>
> HF propagation conditions were normal to above-normal over
> all regions. No changes are expected through 13 April
> inclusive. Normal to above-normal propagation should continue
> to dominate.
>
>
> OBSERVED SOLAR WIND SWE PARAMETERS FROM 2117 TO 2347 UTC ON 10 APR 98
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Maximum Solar Wind Velocity: 407.5 km/sec at 215207 UTC.
>Minimum Solar Wind Velocity: 244.2 km/sec at 224750 UTC.
>Average Solar Wind Velocity: 363.5 km/sec.
>
> Maximum Solar Wind Density: 17.1 p/cm^3 at 220324 UTC.
>
> Maximum Thermal Velocity: 36.7 at 234443 UTC.
> Minimum Thermal Velocity: 10.8 at 224750 UTC.
> Average Thermal Velocity: 30.7.
>
>
> OBSERVED SOLAR WIND MFI PARAMETERS FROM 2116 TO 2355 UTC ON 10 APR 98
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Maximum Solar Wind Bt: 8.2 nT at 213957 UTC.
>Minimum Solar Wind Bt: 4.1 nT at 235525 UTC.
>Average Solar Wind Bt: 6.2 nT.
>
>Maximum Solar Wind Bx: 5.3 nT at 222253 UTC.
>Minimum Solar Wind Bx: -2.8 nT at 215417 UTC.
>Average Solar Wind Bx: 1.5 nT.
>
>Maximum Solar Wind By: 5.7 nT at 230621 UTC.
>Minimum Solar Wind By: -7.9 nT at 213957 UTC.
>Average Solar Wind By: -1.0 nT.
>
>Maximum Solar Wind Bz: 1.1 nT at 223033 UTC.
>Minimum Solar Wind Bz: -3.7 nT at 222253 UTC.
>Average Solar Wind Bz: -1.8 nT.
>
> Maximum Theta Angle: 11.5 degrees at 223033 UTC.
> Minimum Theta Angle: -43.3 degrees at 235525 UTC.
> Average Theta Angle: -18.7 degrees.
>
> Maximum Phi Angle: 354.7 degrees at 234541 UTC.
> Minimum Phi Angle: 16.7 degrees at 222325 UTC.
>
>
> ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV
>
> ------!------------+-------------!----------------+---------
>1.62E+09|......+..........................+..........................|V. HIGH
>9.56E+08|......+.........................V+..........................|High
>5.63E+08|......+........................HV+..........................|
>3.31E+08|......+.......................MHV+..........................|Moder
ate
>1.95E+08|...MM.+.......................MHV+..........................|
>1.15E+08|...MM.+......................MMHV+...M...........MMM........|
>6.75E+07|..MMMMn......................MMHV+..MM..........MMMM........|Normal
>3.97E+07|..MMMMn....NN................MMHVnN.MM..........MMMMN.......|
>2.34E+07|..MMMMnN...NNN.......N.......MMHVnNNMMN.........MMMMN.......|
>1.38E+07|..MMMMnN..NNNN.NNN..NN.......MMHVnNNMMN..NN....NMMMMN.......|
>8.10E+06|..MMMMnN..NNNNNNNN..NNN......MMHVnNNMMN..NN....NMMMMN.......|
>4.77E+06|.NMMMMnN.NNNNNNNNN..NNN......MMHVnNNMMN.NNN....NMMMMNN......|
>2.81E+06|.NMMMMnNNNNNNNNNNN..NNN......MMHVnNNMMN.NNNN.N.NMMMMNN......|
>1.66E+06|.NMMMMnNNNNNNNNNNN..NNN......MMHVnNNMMNNNNNNNNNNMMMMNN......|
>9.81E+05|NNMMMMnNNNNNNNNNNN.NNNN......MMHVnNNMMNNNNNNNNNNMMMMNN......|
>5.81E+05|NNMMMMnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN..N...MMHVnNNMMNNNNNNNNNNMMMMNN..N.NN|
> ------!------------+-------------!----------------+---------
> Mar Apr
>NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data,
> "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron
> fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as
> measured by GOES-9. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have
> been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high
> fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions.
>
>
>COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
>========================================================
>
> REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
>-----------------------------------------------------
>NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
>8193 S23W38 083 0210 ESO 11 10 BETA
>8194 S17E10 035 0300 CHO 12 07 BETA
>8195 S25E18 027 0020 CRO 10 13 BETA
>8198 S28E36 009 0060 CAO 08 18 BETA
>8199 S28W42 087 0100 DAO 07 06 BETA
>8200 S22W07 052 0180 DSI 05 10 BETA
>8202 S21E43 002 0020 BXO 11 11 BETA
>8191 S20W83 129 PLAGE
>8197 N32E08 037 PLAGE
>8201 N19E49 356 PLAGE
>REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 APR TO 13 APR
>NMBR LAT LO
>8183 N22 292
>
>
>LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 APRIL, 1998
>----------------------------------------------------
>BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
> 2130 2130 2130 110
>
>
>POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 APRIL, 1998
>--------------------------------------------------------
> BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
>09/A2147 0000 10/B1028 S50E31 DSF
>
>
>INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
>---------------------------------------------------
> ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
> EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
>90 N31E57 N21E36 N23E29 N35E55 004 ISO POS 006 10830A (HE)
>89 S59E21 S59E17 S28W07 S26E01 042 EXT NEG 010 10830A (HE)
>
>
>** End of Daily Report **
>
>