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(meteorobs) Example of auroral warning

Hi Kenya and other member of the list!

Yous asked if aurora could be visible from Colorado.

Here is an example of a warning that I just received from e-mail and
they said that auroral activity may be observed
from nothern Colorado on the night of August 26/27.

Gaetan Chevalier




      /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

          WATCH UPGRADED TO A WARNING. ISSUED: 23:15 UTC, 25 AUGUST

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC ON 26 AUGUST
       VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 AUGUST

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 26 - 27 AUG (UTC days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:      28 AUG

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 80, 60, 22, 12 (26 AUG - 29 AUG)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  HIGH TO VERY
HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY
GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN UTAH TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO
NORTHERN
        KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN TENNESSEE
TO
        NORTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        CENTRAL FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN CZECHOSLOVAKIA TO

        CENTRAL POLAND TO NOTHERN RUSSIA INCLUDING ALL OF GREAT BRITAIN,
ALL
        OF IRELAND, ALL OF NORWAY, ALL OF SWEDEN AND ALL OF FINLAND.
        OBSERVATIONS OF STRONG ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW
        ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

     A major coronal mass ejection is thought to be in-transit to the
Earth
following yesterdays major class X1.1/3B proton flare.  The arrival of
this
disturbance is expected anytime between 06:00 UTC on 26 August and 24:00
UTC
on 26 August, with a preference between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC on 26
August.
Auroral activity is expected to rapidly reach major to severe storm
levels
immediately to a few hours after the arrival of the shock front
associated
with the coronal mass ejection. If conditions are as favorable as we
expect
them to become, visible auroral actiivty (at times very intense) could
become
visible as far south as northern California, Colorado, Kansas and North
Carolina (see above).  This is expected to be the strongest auroral
storm so
far this solar cycle. Whether it will reach that expectation remains to
be
seen, but the potential certainly exists.

     Observers in North America should therefore watch closely for
activity
during the extreme pre-dawn hours of 26 August and during the evening of

26/27 August. The main phase of this disturbance could approach 24 hours
in
duration, providing most of the Earth's middle latitude regions with a
good
opportunity to observe activity.

     The moon will also be out of the sky near and after local midnight,

which will provide optimum dark-sky conditions for observing this event.
As a
result, auroral activity may be observed much farther south than would
otherwise be possible. A low latitude auroral activity watch is also
being
issued to support this event.

     This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 August.
It
will then be updated or allowed to expire.



**  End of Warning  **