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(meteorobs) Aurora Time/Fwd. STD warning
If any one is lucky enough to have clear skies this should be a nice
backdrop for "meteors"
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
WATCH UPGRADED TO A
WARNING. ISSUED: 23:15 UTC, 25 AUGUST
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VALID BEGINNING AT: 06:00 UTC ON 26 AUGUST VALID UNTIL:
19:00 UTC ON 28 AUGUST
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 26 - 27 AUG (UTC days) MODERATE RISK
PERIOD: 28 AUG
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 80, 60, 22, 12 (26 AUG - 29 AUG) (INPUT INTO
THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH TO VERY
HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
MINOR BELT =
48 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY
GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN UTAH
TO NORTHERN COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO
KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
CENTRAL FRANCE TO SOUTHERN GERMANY
TO NORTHERN CZECHOSLOVAKIA TO CENTRAL POLAND TO NOTHERN
RUSSIA INCLUDING ALL OF GREAT BRITAIN, ALL OF IRELAND, ALL
OF NORWAY, ALL OF SWEDEN AND ALL OF FINLAND. OBSERVATIONS OF
STRONG ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NEW ZEALAND AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.
SYNOPSIS...
A major coronal mass ejection is thought to be
in-transit to the Earth following yesterdays major class X1.1/3B proton
flare. The arrival of this disturbance is expected anytime between 06:00
UTC on 26 August and 24:00 UTC on 26 August, with a preference between
12:00 and 18:00 UTC on 26 August. Auroral activity is expected to
rapidly reach major to severe storm levels immediately to a few hours
after the arrival of the shock front associated with the coronal mass
ejection. If conditions are as favorable as we expect them to become,
visible auroral actiivty (at times very intense) could become visible as
far south as northern California, Colorado, Kansas and North Carolina
(see above). This is expected to be the strongest auroral storm so far
this solar cycle. Whether it will reach that expectation remains to be
seen, but the potential certainly exists.
Observers in North America should therefore
watch closely for activity during the extreme pre-dawn hours of 26
August and during the evening of 26/27 August. The main phase of this
disturbance could approach 24 hours in duration, providing most of the
Earth's middle latitude regions with a good opportunity to observe
activity.
The moon will also be out of the sky near and
after local midnight, which will provide optimum dark-sky conditions for
observing this event. As a result, auroral activity may be observed much
farther south than would otherwise be possible. A low latitude auroral
activity watch is also being issued to support this event.
This warning will remain in effect until 19:00
UTC on 28 August. It will then be updated or allowed to expire.
** End of Warning **
end
Clear Skies,
Bob
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~StarAstronomer/C.S.P.O.~
41.95 N - 70.68 W
http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Hangar/7224
~Tonights Sky~
http://www.earthsky.com/Features/Skywatching/
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