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(meteorobs) Fwd: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Issued


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From: astronomer77@webtvdot net (Robert Johnson)
Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 23:48:43 -0400 (EDT)
To: meteorobs@latrade.com, astronomer77@webtvdot net
Subject: <TEST REP[00000.00000.00144]> (meteorobs) Fwd: AURORA WATCH: Middle 
Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Issued

Thought some might be interested in this.

Wishing All a clear sky,
  Bob

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Carlton S. Perkins Observatory
41d56m52.2s North - 70d40m54s West
Member -
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HomePage - http://www.inergy.com/observatory/welcome.html
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From: Cary Oler <oler@holly.cc.ulethdot ca>
Message-Id: <199806242146.PAA06230@holly.cc.ulethdot ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch Issued
To: astronomer77@webtvdot net
Date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 15:46:19 -0600 (MDT)
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                       WATCH ISSUED: 21:20 UTC, 24 JUNE

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


 ACTIVATION: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 26 JUNE

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 - 25 JUNE (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24 - 26 JUNE

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 25, 18, 15 (24 JUNE - 27 JUNE)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  LOW TO MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        EXTREME NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN OR
        CENTRAL MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN
        WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF EXTREME NORTHERN
        NEW YORK STATE AND POSSIBLY DARK SKY LOCATIONS OF MAINE.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        EXTREME NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING
        THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO NORTHERN
        RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT
        PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
        

SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral activity has been gradually intensifying over the last 12 to 18
hours and particularly during the last 6 to 9 hours following the arrival of
a transient solar disturbance, possibly related to a recent partial halo
coronal mass ejection.  There is a possibility conditions may become
favorable for observing periods of auroral activity over dark-sky middle
latitude sites.  The new-phase of the moon will provide optimal dark-sky
observing conditions.  Although the intensity of activity is not expected to
be abnormally large, activity may become sporadically intense enough to be
observed from numerous middle latitude locations.  One or two more transient
disturbances may yet impact the Earth over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Although
none of these are expected to be particularly severe, their combined effects
may be sufficient to produce visible levels of activity over many middle
latitude sites.

     The duration of this disturbance is difficult to gauge at the present
time and will be dependent upon whether we observe additional disturbances in
the solar wind over the next 48 hours.  This watch will remain active until
19:00 UTC on 26 June, afterwhich it will either be updated (which is a
distinct possibility) or allowed to expire.

     By way of interest, there is a developing solar active region which
appears to be ripening for producing potentially influential solar flares and
possible Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.

     PLEASE SUBMIT ANY OBSERVATIONS YOU MAKE OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://solar.ulethdot ca/solar/www/auroras.html

     For realtime information regarding the status of the disturbance, and
any other solar flares or terrestrial disturbances, consult:

                  http://solar.ulethdot ca/solar/www/swarm.html

   (the only software in the world that can reliably warn of disturbances)
        and associated auroral activity before they impact the Earth.


**  End of Watch  **

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