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RE: (meteorobs) No Storm?




From the reports of the last two days, it would appear that this year's display
is spectacular, but will not include dense clumps of debris falling at thousands
per hour.  It appears that the rates have been fairly constant over the last 36
hours, with the Earth hitting larger particles outside the comet's orbital
plane, and smaller ones as it approached and crossed the plane.  

One reason for the lower count may be the distance between the Earth and comet
orbit at closest approach.  In 1966 the Earth passed only .003 AU from the
orbit.  This time the Earth is passing .008 AU from the orbit.  Many excellent
showers have occurred at that distance and more over the centuries, but the
really strong storms have all occurred with the Earth less than .005 AU from the
orbit at closest approach.

One never knows, but next year's display should be as good as this year's, and
could be better.  The great majority of good displays have occurred when the
earth passed outside the comet's orbit, and after the comet has passed Earth. 
Next year's pass through the debris field is well positioned for another
excellent display.

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