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Re: (meteorobs) Sooo....if it peaks the same time next year.....
In a message dated 98-11-18 15:48:30 EST, you write:
<< Adjusting the "forecast peak" for 1999 (1:48UT Nov. 18) 14 hours
ahead.........
Gives 11:48 UT Nov. 17...........which would favor the extreme Western US,
correct? >>
The last time we were in a similar Earth-comet geometry for the Leonids, the
shower peaked 14 hours early in 1965 and 13 hours early in 1932. So the "15
hour surprise" for 1998 should not have been a total surprise! We in fact,
made a strong allusion to this right here on meteorobs@latrade.com just a week
ago. As for anticipating a similar scenario for 1999, I don't think it will
happen:
The Great 1966 Leonid Storm came approximately an hour after we passed the
node of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. That pretty much would suggest that the prediction
of a peak near 2 hours UT on November 18 should still hold for Europe, north
Africa and western Asia. Am still investigating the '33 Leonids to see how it
may "jive" with this timing. I'll have more detailed comments next week.
-- joe rao
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