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(meteorobs) Re:Sooo....if it peaks the same time next year.....
As Joe Rao has mentioned before we need to look HISTORICALLY at the
Leonids and not THEORETICALLY.
I don't want to dampen anyone's enthusiasm but I also do not want
people to be mislead and start planning their trip to the west coast
of North America or Hawaii just yet for next year's display.
The facts are that the Leonids peaked 13 hours before nodal crossing
back in 1965. A similar timing occurred again this year. This does not
mean that the 1999 Leonids will again peak 13 hours before nodal
crossing. The fact is in 1966 the peak actually occurred one hour AFTER
nodal crossing. Nodal crossing in 1999 occurs at 01:48 Universal Time.
If it again occurs one hour later then maximum activity will occur at
02:48 UT or 09:48 PM EST and 06:48 PST. This does no good to North
America as the radiant is well below the horizon at these times.
It seem that in 1999 our friends in Europe and Western Africa have the
ringside seats!
John is correct in stating that scientific expeditions should scatter
themselves throughout the world.
So does anybody got a spare ticket to the Canary Islands?
Bob Lunsford
International Meteor Organization
John Krempasky wrote:
> Adjusting the "forecast peak" for 1999 (1:48UT Nov. 18) 14 hours
> ahead.........
>
> Gives 11:48 UT Nov. 17...........which would favor the extreme Western US,
> correct? Though there is a danger of a peak over the East Pacific, I would
> suppose (possibly a chance for Hawaii I would suppose). Ironic if that's
> where the storm occurs AGAIN.
>
> Of course, I have little doubt the Leonids will fool us again. The lesson
> of this year is that the formal "scientific expeditions should" scatter
> themselves around the world..dot best I can gather, they all descended on Asia,
> and many had better shows where they came from :-)
>
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