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(meteorobs) Re: Leonids Meteor Shower: BAD NEWS!

UH, ISN'T THIS QUITE TYPICAL?  See how many errors you can find in this release based on your monitoring of the list and observers' reports.  First of all, there was NOT a two-hour peak beginning at 2:20 EST (19:20 UT) on the 17th.  But, of course, predictions can never be wrong.  The news of these events has to fit the schedule and of course assuage the egos of all who went to the Far East for the peak that, yes, they were the chosen ones.  The highlight of the 1998 Leonids, aside from the reports of spectacular fireballs early in the game, was that motivated, lucky observers around the WHOLE WORLD had the chance to see a great display that many will not forget.  But, if you ain't THE BEST, THE GREATEST EVER, you don't make the news.

Secondly, WHERE is it written that you need 100 meteors/hour for it to be a shower?  Such trash can be very damaging to public interest the next time someone gives a realistic prediction of how many meteors will be seen by an average observer during a Perseid or Geminid peak.  "Not 100/hour or more?  Oh, well, it won't really be a shower.  I'll stay inside and watch TV until there's a real storm scheduled." Meanwhile, light pollution gets worse and worse...

Thirdly, as someone mentioned before the 2018 Draconids have at least a decent chance of reaching storm levels, so here is just one example of a possible storm within the next 30 years.

Of the news broadcasts I watched, few gave any good advice on how to see the shower (not that it mattered much given the local weather), and the main focus seemed to be on the use of "storm" and "best since 1966" as frequently as possible.

It would make me sick...but I am already.

--
Wes Stone

> Centre for Research in Earth and Space Technology
> Toronto, Ontario
> 
> Leonids meteor shower ... good news and bad news
> 
> November 17, Toronto -- Billed as the first meteor storm of the modern space
> age, the "two-part" Leonids storm didn't quite live up to scientists'
> expectations earlier this afternoon, but still offered viewers in the Far
> East a fantastic display during its two-hour peak beginning at roughly 2:20
> pm EST.
> 
> Ground observations collected by the Canadian science teams in Ulaan Baator,
> Mongolia and at Tindal Air Force Base, Australia, revealed a density of
> roughly 100-200 meteors per hour, posing little threat to Earth's satellite
> fleet. This number falls many times shy of the Leonids meteor storm of 1966,
> which coincided with the last trip by parent comet Tempel-Tuttle as part of
> its normal 33-year orbit around the Sun.
> 
> "While it wasn't what we anticipated, it was a great opportunity for our
> science team to further develop our predictive model," said Richard
> Worsfold, CRESTech's Leonids project manager, who is with the Australia
> team at Tindal. "But, it's great news for satellite operators, who now only
> have to worry for part-B of the storm, which isn't until this time next year."
> 
> In superlative terms, this year's Leonids will not go down in history as the
> first of the modern space age but as one of many showers. However, if "part
> B" of the storm takes place as predicted next year, as now seems to be the
> case, all records are still up for grabs.
> 
> The 1999 storm, or shower, will be visible on November 17 next year,
> although this time visible over Europe and the Middle East and will quite
> definitely be the last opportunity for a major meteor storm for at least
> another 30 years.
> 
> As of the shower's end, no satellites operators had reported anomalies. In
> all likelihood, these reports will, if applicable, be generated over the
> next several days or weeks at the discretion of satellite owners.
> 
> Generally speaking, a storm requires sightings of at least 1000 meteors per
> hours, while a shower requires only about 100. Attached is a list of the
> recent meteor showers for comparison.
> 
>         * 1998 -- Leonids - 100 to 200 meteors/hour at peak
>         * 1998 -- Draconid meteors - 300 meteors/hour at peak
>         * 1993 -- Perseid meteors - 350 meteors/hour at peak
>         * 1985 -- Draconid meteors - 500 meteors/hour at peak
>         * 1969 -- Leonids - 350 meteors/hour at peak
>         * 1966 -- Leonid meteors - 100,000 meteors/hour at peak (storm)
> 
> The Centre for Research in Earth and Space Technology (CRESTech) is a
> not-for-profit science and technology organization created to conduct
> multidisciplinary collaborative research and development in Earth and space
> sciences. It is based in Toronto, Canada and supported by the Ontario
> government=B9s Centres of Excellence program.
> 
> For more information on CRESTech's Leonids Program, please visit
> www.crestechdot ca, or contact:
> 
> Andre Bellefeuille
> CRESTech Communications
> (416) 665-5464 office,or (416) 707-9120 cell
> 
> To UNSUBSCRIBE from the 'meteorobs' email list, use the Web form at:
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> 


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