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(meteorobs) Leonids 1998 prediction -- A look back. . .
In my original manuscript for the Leonid article in the November S&T I made
the following comment concerning 1998:
". . . modest rates and rich fireball activity observed in 1965 seem to
suggest that, in an area within at least 200 days behind the comet, there
appears to be less in the way of dust, while larger (1 to 0.01 gram) particles
are in greater abundance. From (roughly) 300 days and beyond, we appear to be
in a region where there is more in the way of smaller dust particles. . . "
"In 1998 Earth will follow 55P/Tempel-Tuttle to the node by 257.3 days --
nearly the midpoint between the case of the 1965 display and the 1866 storm.
So while there is certainly a chance that the Leonids could storm (in 1998),
one should seriously consider the possibility that the 1998 Leonids may merely
produce another modest showing with hourly rates being measured only in the
hundreds and not thousands, with a large proportion of fireballs."
"A word of caution: unknown perturbations. . . might have shifted Leonid
particles somewhat above or below the orbital plane of the comet. The 1965
Leonids, for instance, peaked. . . about 13 hours before the Earth arrived at
the comet's orbital plane."
I'll leave it to all of you to decide how accurate this prediction for 1998
was. . .
I also cited that if a meteor storm appeared in 1998, it would be a first of
sorts in "modern" Leonid history, since going back over the past six Leonid
cycles no storm had ever occurred less than 299.4 days from the comet's nodal
crossing. It appears that this oddity remains intact.
By later next week -- after I get the mounds of reports from this year's
display together -- I'll look into my crystal ball and see what 1999 has in
store.
-- joe rao
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