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Re: (meteorobs) David Asher's Leonid calculations



In The Astronomer, 1999 March, Vol 35, pp279-283, I looked at the use of
the comet node and David Asher's dust trails in calculating the time of
maximum of Leonid storms.  The summary is as follows

"On Predicting the Time of Leonid Stroms

Using the dust trail calculations of Asher (1999), the Leonid maxima in
the next two years are predicted to occur at

                 1999 Nov. 18 02:08 UT
                 2000 Nov. 18 07:50 UT

with an uncertainty of +/- 90 minutes and possibly as small as +/- 10
minutes.  The uncertainty is based on the close correspondence between the
time of encounter of the dust trails and the time of observed storms in
the last 200 years."

This is slightly modified in the WGN paper (potential double maxima in
2000, uncertainty better defined, rates predicted for these and other
years).  The uncertainty has to be judged against calculations for
previous storms and I think the evidence is very strong that an
uncertainty of 10 minutes can be justified.  However, I'd be happy to
debate this once the WGN article is published.  Much of the evidence for
the uncertainty in the time of maximum is presented in The Astronomer (TA)
article.

The web page of "TA" is:

http://wwwdot demon.codot uk/astronomer

Cheers, Rob

PS A friend of mine, Steve Lee, discovered a mag 9 comet at a star party
last night!  Declination -69, so a bit difficult for northern observers.

Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au

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