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Re: (meteorobs) Dashed Leonid Hopes
Kim,
The newspaper article should have said that there won't be any Leonid
resonant fireballs in 1999. The display of 1998 can only occur once per
orbit at high intensity. The two other aspects of the Leonids are the
(non-resonant) portions of the dust trails and the background component.
The background is always raised near the comet, and the dust trails are
densest. 1999 should have higher overall rates than 1998, but with
proportionately less fireballs (higher mass index).
Although I don't think the Americas will see the peak, it is important for
the IMO global analyses that observations be made from all longitudes.
Whereas predictions can be made for dust trails, there is currently no
overall model of the background and this will require observations
throughout the activity period to have the data for checking and models of
the background.
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
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