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Re: (meteorobs) Dashed Leonid Hopes

Hello Joe...
        The article is quite recent (05-02-99)--written by David L. Chandler,
Globe staff and pertains to the work of "astronomers, David Asher and Mark Bailey
of the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland,"  and can be found at

http://www.boston.com:80/dailyglobe2/122/metro/Meteor_mystery_may_be_solved+.shtml

In the meantime, I'll put away my hankerchief and continue honing my skills....;>


Kim Youmans







Skywayinc@aol.com wrote:

> In a message dated 5/2/99 4:16:10 PM Eastern Daylight Time, ksyo@pinelanddot net
> writes:
>
> << "The bad news is that their mapping shows that, contrary to many
> astronomers' hopes, there will be no spectacular meteor storm this coming
> November,
> just a slightly-stronger than usual Leonid shower."
>
> Should I really start boo-hooing, or just wait for (hopefully) Joe's next S&T
> article for more insight?? >>
>
> Kim -- I don't know who might have written the Boston Globe article that you
> refer to, but there certainly is a better chance at a meteor storm this year
> (1999) as opposed to last year.  Historically, many of the great meteor
> storms have occurred when the Earth is roughly 400 to 800 days behind the
> parent comet (55P/Tempel-Tuttle).  As we will be trailing the comet by 623
> days in 1999 indicates that if, for nothing else, history is on our side for
> a possible big display.
>
> Also . . . in an independent study, I moved forward (integrated) the same
> concentration of particles that gave rise to the 1966 storm, and found that
> they will miss Earth by only 0.0026 AU in November 1999.  In addition, David
> Asher of Armagh Observatory has recently published a paper which demonstrates
> that the geometrical circumstances for the 1999 Leonids compare rather
> favorably with the 1833 Leonids and the 1966 Leonids.  While it is true that
> nothing is truly certain in regards to a meteor shower prediction, I think
> that there is a good chance that we'll have a most interesting display.  In
> fact, out of most of the Leonid predictions floating out there, the only
> really negative one is that of Iwan P. Williams and Zidian Wu of Great
> Britain, who state that " . . . few Leonids will be seen in 1999."
>
> I guess we'll all know for sure in about 6 1/2 months!
>
> -- joe rao
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