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(meteorobs) More Intense Leonid Bombardment Predicted For 1999


Aerospace Corporation
El Segundo, California
http://www.aero.org/news/current/leonidfollowup.html

News Release: May 16, 1999
 
Leonid Conference Participants Ask: "Were We Lucky Last Year?"
 
"Were we lucky last year?"
 
That is a question asked at the second Leonid Meteoroid and Satellite
Threat Conference held May 11-13 in Manhattan Beach, California.
 
The answer -- "maybe" -- was about as clear cut as possible given the
unpredictability of meteor showers.
 
About 100 satellite owners and operators from the international space
community attended the event, sponsored by The Aerospace Corporation and
the American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics. These included
civil, commercial and military participants.
 
None reported damage to their satellites from the Nov. 1998 Leonids
shower, though there were reports of impacts from the tiny but zippy
particles that make their presence known every 33 years or so.
 
Because the Leonids, the fastest meteoroids that visit Earth, normally
occur with strength in pairs of years, preparations are being made for
the 1999 event.
 
And some scientists at the conference predicted a more intense 
bombardment on Nov. 17/18 than was experienced last year at the same
time.
 
This Year?
 
At least two conference presenters predicted a storm-level concentration
of meteoroids for Nov. 1999. But even at storm-level, the consensus was
that the 650 operational satellites on orbit will not be significantly
threatened, though the uncertainty factor leaves open the possibility.
 
Satellite controllers said they will be making plans for this year's
event based on their experience in 1998 and on what they learned at the
conference where a great deal of information was shared. Most operators
said they will make adjustments and improvements to their plans.
 
The 1998 Leonid shower galvanized those in the satellite community to
action and a new awareness about threats from the space environment has
emerged. One scientist at the conference said the 1998 event was "a
wakeup call" for satellite operators. This wakeup call and the response
by the satellite community represented "the real success" achieved,
another participant said.
 
Space Weather
 
Included in this year's conference was a session on solar activities and
the significant threat posed by the solar maximum due in the
spring-to-summer period in 2000.
 
David K. Lynch, Ph.D., technical chair of the conference, announced that
another Leonids conference will be held in 2000 with increased emphasis
on the areas of space weather, space debris and satellite operations.
 
Meanwhile, scientists who monitored the Leonids in 1998 from Mongolia,
Australia, the air and other locations said they plan to repeat their
exercises this year, once again employing sophisticated sensors and
cameras.
 
Called For
 
Among actions called for at the conference were:
 
   * establishment of an independent "clearinghouse" for collection and
     distribution of information on meteoroids and other threats from the
     space environment
   * creation of better meteoroid prediction models
   * more focus on the role of sporadic meteoroids
   * a satellite-based meteor-watch capability
   * new techniques to track meteoroids
 
Other information on the Leonids phenomenon is available at
   http://www.aero.org/leonid/

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