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Re: (meteorobs) Tunguska bolide & Beta taurid stream



At 10:37 AM 6/28/99 +1000, Rob McNaught wrote:
>Jim,
>Thanks for the research on the NEO issue.  Some of the recent work is a
>bit technical and covers processes that push or pull objects into
>resonance with Jupiter and that in turn results in the orbit changing from
>a relatively stable main-belt to an Earth-crosser.
>
>Regarding the recent orbits of meteorites you refer to.  Unless there some
>objective basis for the orbit derivation, they will be no more than
>educated guesses.  

Rob is absolutely correct on the accuracy of orbits obtained strictly from
visual observations.  I had meant to toss in a comment along those lines,
but it slipped out somewhere.   Attempting to achieve an orbit solution for
a fireball from the observations a bunch of random, unskilled observers is
frustrating at best.  I've tried a few times over the years, and never come
up with anything satisfactory.  The only reliable orbits are those from
appropriately equipped dual (or more) station photo/video efforts (even
those can be compromised for very bright events), and of course radar.
And to date, as Rob says, there have only been a very small number of falls
observed in this way.

JB
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