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(meteorobs) RE: [WSVHF] 1999 Perseids



The following are two radio amateur meteor scatter enthusiasts' perceptions
of this year's Perseids "shower". The feeling among the "hams" is that the
Perseids are, year-to-year, becoming more and more scarce and
unpredictable. I believe, however, that there is much more to the ham's
perception: for example, this year, I found almost nobody at all aware that
the predicted peak at 23Z on 12 August would occur with the radiant below
the majority of the North American horizon! So I tend to take some of the
hams' comments with a couple of grains of salt. Still and all, however, the
trend of the radio Perseids reflections does appear to have been decreasing
over the past decade or so.

My question: what would it take for the "scientific" folks like Joe Rao,
Rob McNaught, et al, to be able to evaluate the Perseids as they did the
Leonids last year to establish a more-definitive prediction of future
activity? That is, are there data available which those folks might
evaluate to estimate what's been going on with the Perseids in recent
years, such as a possible trail shift or the like? I realize that many
visual observations over the past several years have been prevented or
obscured by weather and other environmental factors. But I'm asking whether
it is even possible to more-finely-tune future Perseids predictions with
the existing data, or what new data must be acquired in the future?

My own experience this year was similar to last year's and due to my
hearing problem on the radio with voices (I greatly favor morse code as a
result), I could not really tell when I was hearing reflected signals or
merely locals chatting on the frequency (I could not understand the
majority of what was being said, nor by whom and where they were located,
whether local or far-off reflected stations). I did have a number of
prearranged radio schedules with others, of which only a couple were
completely successful but of which most produced some useful signals even
as high as 432 MHz at 15-16Z on 12 August (the same schedule today provided
less signal than yesterday). Personally, I have not really been able to
perceive any real difference in the Perseids activity since I began earnest
prearranged radio schedules in 1993; but I don't think I'm hearing enough
to give any judgement of the shower's apparent decrease in activity, either.

BTW, I earlier took the liberty of copying portions of Bob Lunsford's and
Kim Youmans' reports to several of the ham reflectors; hope that was OK
with you two! I'm looking forward to similar brief synopsies of
observations from Hawaii and Asia as well as anything from Europe.

Clear skies,

SteveH
Amateur Radio K0XP
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>From: "Russ Pillsbury" <k2txb@dxcc.com>
>To: "John Hill" <jhill@visi.com>, <wsvhf@qthdot net>
>Cc: <nlrs@qthdot net>
>Subject: RE: [WSVHF] 1999 Perseids
>Date: Fri, 13 Aug 1999 22:23:41 -0400
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>Reply-To: "Russ Pillsbury" <k2txb@dxcc.com>
>
>John Hill, NJ0M wrote:
>
>> Subject: [WSVHF] 1999 Perseids
>>
>> This is my my second Perseids. Lastyear, after reading all the glorious
>> fanfare about this shower, I was really pumped up for it. Either someone
>> was overstating the facts or I misinterpreted them. There were no new
>> grids, waiting like wheat before the scythe, to be mowed down. Being
>> relatively new to MS, I sat intimidated the few times 144.200 erupted for
>> a brief period. Boy, did I feel dumb, taking three days vacation for it.
>
>> How was it this year? Great! I nailed down 7 new grids on 2M (180-188).
>> New grids are hard to come by lately. Were they handed up to me on
>> a platter? Heck no! I had to work for them, but the opportunities were
>> there, not only on the 12th, but the 13th also. The point is, don't look
>> back.
>
>> If I can get seven new grids this time next year, then it will be a big
>> success to me again. The Rocks and 144 Prop Web pages were a big
>> help in determining where to look. I highly recommend them. It was odd
>> to see several stations "bitching" about conditions as they worked other
>> stations, some for new grids. Did I miss something there?
>
>Hi John.  While all you say is true, with regard to taking advantage of what
>is there and making it possible to work new stuff, you have to have been
>there to appreciate the Perseids of yesteryear.  For the past 10 years, at
>least, the Perseids have been getting less and less as far as radio is
>concerned.  This year was the worst yet.  I can remember years where the
>activity was non-stop for the 2-3 day period.  You could tune across the
>band most any time all night long and hear stations running skeds - and
>making them.  We didn't have the internet in those days, but we used 80
>meters to set up skeds, and the telephone when that failed.  I don't know if
>the Perseids will ever return to the glory of years past, but if it does it
>really will be like "new grids, waiting like wheat before the scythe, to be
>mowed down"!
>
>Very 73, Russ K2TXB
>
>
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