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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid annual and outburst components

In a message dated 8/27/99 6:03:24 AM Eastern Daylight Time, excel@sioldot net 
writes:

<< Were the storms of 1799, 1833 and 1866 caused by an abnormal annual 
component, or were these just some other storm components (other filaments). 
And how strong is the annual component expected to be this year? >>

    If you read into the literature carefully, you will find that the 1799 
display which was observed from South America by Humboldt was a shower where 
there was a high proportion of fireballs and bolides.  In fact, this 
magnificent event occurred during the night of a full Moon!  It was also a 
display that occurred prior to the parent comet's arrival at its descending 
node (only a few months later), so one would strongly suspect to encounter a 
number of much-larger particles which lie in the immediate vicinity of the 
comet itself.

    There was also a brilliant pre-nodal crossing shower that was observed 
from parts of the Eastern Hemisphere in 1832 -- the year before the legendary 
1833 storm from North America.  The 1832 display also appeared to have a high 
number of very bright meteors, again likely due to the very close proximity 
of Earth to the parent comet.

    The 1966 display was indeed spectacular.  Although the proportion of 
regular meteors to fireballs was not as great as in 1965, there were a fair 
number of brilliant meteors observed (although much closer to an overall 
cross section sampling of meteors covering a broader scale of magnitudes).  
The 1966 display occurred 19 months after the nodal crosing of the parent 
comet.  The upcoming 1999 display comes 21 months after nodal crossing.  
Hence I would suspect the same type of magnitude spread this year that was 
observed in 1966 . . . there likely will be a fair number of fireballs and 
bolides, though not on the same proportional levels as to what was observed 
in 1965 and 1998 (when we were positioned more closely in space to the parent 
comet).  

    And don't forget the Asher, et al study demonstrating our interaction 
with a "braid" of resonant meteoroids consisting of large particles in 1998.  
   

-- joe rao    
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