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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Fw: Forecast Calls for Exciting Leonids Meteor Shower
There were a few problems with the Leonid story which I'll explain later.
I've also been told that the October issue of Astronomy had a poor note on
our Leonid work. Haven't seen it yet, but will respond after I have.
Observers in the US have opportunities as follows according to the dust
trail theory
2000 Nov 18 07:51 UT ZHR 100-5,000 (lower limit more likely)
2001 Nov 18 10:01 UT 2,500? (trail has been disrupted)
2002 Nov 19 10:36 UT 25,000 "reliable" prediction
In 2000, the last quarter moon is in the sky, 2001 has no moon and, sadly,
the 2002 event is during full Moon.
Overall, the 2002 prediction is the firmest prediction of a storm over the
coming years from the dust trails. Observanle rates may be higher in 2001
from Australia and eastern Asia around Nov 18 18:19 UT, than at the peak
in 2002, but probably only because there is no interference from the Moon.
Thus in terms of the dust trail encounters, the US doesn't fare too badly
and will possibly experience the highest ZHRs this time around.
As I've stated many times, these rate predictions are for the DUST TRAILS
only and not the overall shower. Background rates appear to be able to
reach ZHR 500 or so without any trail encounters, so any longitude could
get a most impressive shower. We make no predictions of such background
activity. In 2000, I won't be surprised if the dust trail peaks are lost
within the background.
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
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