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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Fw: Forecast Calls for Exciting Leonids MeteorShower
In a message dated 10/1/99 1:40:20 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
MPowerd2B@aol.com writes:
<< I just read the recent article in Sky & Tel.
about the Leonids and it said that there's a possibility of seeing something
this year in the Eastern US. >>
This comment likely refers to my Leonid article in the upcoming
(November) issue of Sky & Telescope. It is based purely on an extrapolation
of the observed maxima of the so-called "storm component" of the Leonid
shower, based on solar longitudes. From the 1996, 1997 and 1998 values, it
appears that in 1999 the Leonids would peak near 235.38 degrees -- or around
4:15 UT on November 18. Were this to happen, viewers along the eastern
seaboard of North America would have a "chance" to catch enhanced Leonid
activity by virtue of seeing "Earth-grazing" meteors, with long paths
streaking from the Leonid radiant (which would be near or just below the
horizon). This would correspond to the late-evening of the 17th at 11:15
p.m. EST.
However, it is probably more likely that the actual peak will come a
couple of hours earlier -- at around 2:00 UT -- based in part on a time much
closer to when Earth passes closest to the parent comet's descending node
(based on computations by D.K. Yeomans of NASA/JPL) and the dynamical
calculations of recently released meteor trails (by MacNaught and Asher).
In any case -- it would seem that no matter where you are, an all-night
vigil is in order for the night of November 17-18! That's the important thing.
-- joe rao
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