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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Fw: Forecast Calls for Exciting Leonids Meteor Shower
Rob McNaught wrote:
>
> Observers in the US have opportunities as follows according to the dust
> trail theory
>
> 2000 Nov 18 07:51 UT ZHR 100-5,000 (lower limit more likely)
> 2001 Nov 18 10:01 UT 2,500? (trail has been disrupted)
> 2002 Nov 19 10:36 UT 25,000 "reliable" prediction
>
> Overall, the 2002 prediction is the firmest prediction of a storm over the
> coming years from the dust trails.
As your dust trails theory predicts a storm in 2002, I assume the Earth
will pass through a thicker part of this particular dust trail than the one
in 1969? And are these dust trails one and the same?
Since the shower in 1969 was only a brief one, I guess there's not much of
enhanced Leonid showers or storms in Europe that year (if your times above
are peak times).
So, we have an exact copy of years 1965 & 1998 and 1969 & 2002. Hard to
believe years 1966 & 1999 wouldn't be alike (even though there's no dust
trails this time).
Markku Vanamo
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