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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Fw: Forecast Calls for Exciting Leonids Meteor Shower
I'm afraid I won't have time to reply for a few days. Unfortunately the
full details have not appeared in a popular glossy (like Astronomy and S&T
to their shame), but have in WGN, Sky and Space (Australia) and an Irish
journal. I'll ask David Asher if he has details on his web page
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
On Sun, 3 Oct 1999, Markku Vanamo wrote:
> Rob McNaught wrote:
> >
> > Observers in the US have opportunities as follows according to the dust
> > trail theory
> >
> > 2000 Nov 18 07:51 UT ZHR 100-5,000 (lower limit more likely)
> > 2001 Nov 18 10:01 UT 2,500? (trail has been disrupted)
> > 2002 Nov 19 10:36 UT 25,000 "reliable" prediction
> >
> > Overall, the 2002 prediction is the firmest prediction of a storm over the
> > coming years from the dust trails.
>
> As your dust trails theory predicts a storm in 2002, I assume the Earth
> will pass through a thicker part of this particular dust trail than the one
> in 1969? And are these dust trails one and the same?
>
> Since the shower in 1969 was only a brief one, I guess there's not much of
> enhanced Leonid showers or storms in Europe that year (if your times above
> are peak times).
>
> So, we have an exact copy of years 1965 & 1998 and 1969 & 2002. Hard to
> believe years 1966 & 1999 wouldn't be alike (even though there's no dust
> trails this time).
>
> Markku Vanamo
>
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