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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid max
"FIPT LBTS1b(con)3, D Cross" wrote:
>
> As last year, many are asking the best time and place to watch for
> Leonids.
>
> As a (very) casual observer, the lesson I drew from last year is that
> the best place is anywhere outside (but as dark as possible helps) and
> the best time is whenever the radiant is above the horizon, or not too
> far below, and the sky is at least partly clear, for as many nights
> around the expected peak as you can manage.
>
This is true David. People should not confine themselves just to the
night of maximum activity. One can hope to see unusual activity but
don't expect to see high rates away from the night of maximum activity.
> This is on the basis that the predictions are *only* predictions, so the
> more time you spend watching the sky the more chance you have of getting
> lucky - wherever you are. We seem to have detailed analyses of why last
> year's Leonids went off the way they did, and I have no reason to doubt
> their accuracy, but they *are* after the event. I don't believe that a
> *consensus* of last year's predictions (as reflected in postings to
> meteorobs) would have led observers to expect what actually happened.
> (Individual predictors may have got it right - I don't recall.) Of
> course, the data from last year has improved our understanding, so
> predictions should in principle be better this year, but they surely
> can't approach certainty.
>
Once again I agree but what happened last year was a combination of two
displays. The first and strongest display was not expected and provided
the entire globe with dazzling fireballs. The predicted display occurred
near the predicted time but was overshadowed by the earlier fireballs.
Yes, we learned a lesson here but one has to admit it was from unusual
circumstances. No one is totally ruling out another unexpected display
this year but it seems more unlikely now that the parent comet is far
from the inner solar system.
> I don't want to offend the experts, and please put me right (gently, if
> possible) if I'm missing something here, but should we really be
> encouraging people to think of this as an event that happens at a
> definitely predictable time in a predictable part of the world? It gives
> me no pleasure at all to be the only one among my friends and relatives
> who saw last year's outburst because I was the only one who got up the
> night before the media said it would happen.
>
I see your point but should we also get their hopes up and then
disappoint them? There have been too many astronomical fiasco's such as
the 1899 Leonids and Comet Kohoutek (the comet of the century!). We
certainly need to be conservative in our predictions. I feel safe to say
that if an outburst occurs this year it will most likely be seen from
areas located from the Atlantic Ocean to Western Asia. To tell others
that a good show will be seen from other areas may lead to major
disappointment. We must remember that even on the morning of November
17, 1966, the observed hourly rate one hour before the outburst was only
192 or roughly 3 meteors per minute. This was from the very dark skies
of Kitt Peak. Urban and suburban observers would have seen much less
activity. To anyone expecting an outburst this would certainly be a
disappointing result! To expect even these rates this year from areas
several time zones removed is overly optimistic.
The bottom line here is to try to watch for 3 nights centered on
November 18. Hope for the best but don't expect to be overwhelmed by the
activity or brightness of this years display. Last but not least be sure
you share your observations with the rest of us by posting them to
meteorobs!
Finally David, congratulations on being one of the few who witnessed the
activity on November 16 last year. While the overall rates were lower
that morning the quality of the fireballs seen was unforgettable.
Clear Skies!
Bob Lunsford
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