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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid 'gusts' -the 1997 Japanese video!!



Hi Rob and others,

I agree with Rob that reports of non-randomness in meteor appearance 
should be regarded with caution. Small APPARENT groupings of meteors are 
just part of a poisson distribution and have no meaning in a physical 
sense (not necessary at least). They are also a very common phenomenon 
most active observers know from any meteor stream, especially those with 
the better rates. Then indeed, Rob is right, that the human mind can 
produce such things -a momentary lapse of attention, followed by a 
clear mind again, for example. It is unnattural to keep attention 
focussed for a long time, sooner or later, you have short periods of a 
wandering mind. That's because we are concious beings.

Yet, I do think that the 1997 Japanese video footage should merit some 
consideration, for they do rise some thoughts and it is better not to 
explain them away to quickly as something unique and thus not relevant. The 
footage itself is by all means unique indeed, yes, thus we 
have no way of estimating whether the intensity of this particular 
'flurrie' is typical or atypical if we entertain for a moment the notion 
that such occurrences (breakup of dustballs/meteoroids in pre-luminous 
trajectory resulting in a flurry of simultanious meteors) could be typical 
of fresh dust such as in an outburst structure. With this, I 
want to say, that similar phenomenon might occur on a smaller scale, and 
need not be that intensive as the unique 1997 video phenomenon. If true, 
I am quite sure this will give the analysts of visual data a headache, 
for you can wonder whether an activity curve and flux profile of an 
activity occurence containing such events has the same 'meaning' as a 
curve/flux-profile from a 'normal' shower. Please note; I am not saying 
that it necessarily has to be this way. Only, that the 1997 video is in 
itself ground to entertain such a possibility, if alone to keep the mind 
sharp. We still know so little of these unique outburst phenomenon, that 
we are bound to be in for surprises (and headaches, and pittfalls). I 
still remember how we were set on the wrong foot initially by the unique 
(again!) brightness distribution of the alfa Monocerotids during the 1995 
outburst (see our paper: P. Jenniskens, H. Betlem, M. de Lignie and M. 
Langbroek, Astrophysical Journal 479 (1997), 441-447)

- Marco


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'Data does not speak for itself. I have been in rooms with data and
 listened very carefully. The data never said a word.'

                                      Milford Wollpof (1975)
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