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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid 'gusts' -the 1997 Japanese video!!
Hi Rob and others,
I agree with Rob that reports of non-randomness in meteor appearance
should be regarded with caution. Small APPARENT groupings of meteors are
just part of a poisson distribution and have no meaning in a physical
sense (not necessary at least). They are also a very common phenomenon
most active observers know from any meteor stream, especially those with
the better rates. Then indeed, Rob is right, that the human mind can
produce such things -a momentary lapse of attention, followed by a
clear mind again, for example. It is unnattural to keep attention
focussed for a long time, sooner or later, you have short periods of a
wandering mind. That's because we are concious beings.
Yet, I do think that the 1997 Japanese video footage should merit some
consideration, for they do rise some thoughts and it is better not to
explain them away to quickly as something unique and thus not relevant. The
footage itself is by all means unique indeed, yes, thus we
have no way of estimating whether the intensity of this particular
'flurrie' is typical or atypical if we entertain for a moment the notion
that such occurrences (breakup of dustballs/meteoroids in pre-luminous
trajectory resulting in a flurry of simultanious meteors) could be typical
of fresh dust such as in an outburst structure. With this, I
want to say, that similar phenomenon might occur on a smaller scale, and
need not be that intensive as the unique 1997 video phenomenon. If true,
I am quite sure this will give the analysts of visual data a headache,
for you can wonder whether an activity curve and flux profile of an
activity occurence containing such events has the same 'meaning' as a
curve/flux-profile from a 'normal' shower. Please note; I am not saying
that it necessarily has to be this way. Only, that the 1997 video is in
itself ground to entertain such a possibility, if alone to keep the mind
sharp. We still know so little of these unique outburst phenomenon, that
we are bound to be in for surprises (and headaches, and pittfalls). I
still remember how we were set on the wrong foot initially by the unique
(again!) brightness distribution of the alfa Monocerotids during the 1995
outburst (see our paper: P. Jenniskens, H. Betlem, M. de Lignie and M.
Langbroek, Astrophysical Journal 479 (1997), 441-447)
- Marco
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'Data does not speak for itself. I have been in rooms with data and
listened very carefully. The data never said a word.'
Milford Wollpof (1975)
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