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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid storm predictions
In a message dated 11/9/99 3:52:48 AM Eastern Standard Time,
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au writes:
<< S&T for Nov
1999 has a article by Joe Rao. There are some errors regarding our
work. The statement
"David Asher's analysis of meteoroid streams that are three revolutions
old suggest that 1999 compares somewhat favourably to the
one-revolution storm of 1833 and the two-revolution storm of 1966."
This is completely wrong in our view and must be Joe's interpretation of
the data. >>
Rob -- my comments are based on David's original article that appeared
earlier this year in MNRAS. In that article (which did not contain any
predictions concerning hourly rates for any given year) he had indicated that
for possible meteor storms that it was important for the value RE-RD (the
heliocentric distances of the dust trail's descending node and of the Earth
at the same longitude) to be quite small. The one revolution value for 1833
was given as -0.0003 and the two revolution value for 1966 is indicated as
-0.0001. Since the 1999 three revolution value is predicted to be
-0.0007, my interpretation of this was that this was "somewhat favorable" for
a meteor storm (ZHR >1000 per hour) to occur. I don't think that there could
have been any mis-interpretation on anyone's part that based upon this I was
infering that the very high rates of 1833 and 1866 was going to be repeated
in 1999 -- especially since (as you yourself point out) I follow this up in
the next paragraph by directly quoting your predictions for hourly rates not
only for this year, but for the next several years to come.
-- joe rao
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