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RE: (meteorobs) Linearids observed!
Mike replied to previous comments:
My FOV was centered near Polaris, so the Linearid appeared just to the
upper left of center, so I could trace the trajectory back to the bowl
of the big dipper with high confidence.
I am certainly not arguing that point.
I also observed 5 Taurid and 4 sporadic, in 2.5 hours. My error in
estimate of the Linearid trajectory was about 5 deg at the dipper (low
in N horizon) and 3 deg at the origin of the track (at elevation 40
deg). This is an area of sky about 160 deg^2, where the radiant could
possibly be located. The total sky is about 20,000 deg^2, so the
probability that 5 sporadic did not come from this area is roughly
(1-160/20,000)^5 = 96.0%, and you would need to see 87 sporadics, before
your odds were better than even to catch one with radiant in this area.
There are some misconceptions here. You are only looking at your field of
view (As is any other "sporadic" observer). This is approximately a 50
degree radius, so your FOV is only about 8000 deg^2. You only observed 1
possible LINEARID meteor. As a minimum in any statistical analysis, you
must add +/- 1 to that, so at the very least your rate for possible
linearids is 0.4/hr +0.8/-0.4. I also feel your method of calculating the
odds is suspect, but I have to think about that more.
4 sporadics in 2.5 hours is a very low rate (1.6/hr) ...certainly not
unheard of (I know) but low in any case so that the schochastic
distribution of meteors would increase the potential errors. The expected
sporadic rate at your LM would probably be more like 3-8 PER HOUR. In any
case, the point is, that one meteor by itself, considering the questionable
nature of the Linearids, and your low sporadic rate, proves nothing. It
DOES NOT mean that the observation is wrong, or worthless. It means that it
must be combined with other observations in order to possibly derive any
statistical significance from the activity. That will require more analysis
than can possible be done in the week before the Leonids!
So, with my observation odds of only about 4% (I disagree, but have not
calculated more accurate odds yet) of catching a sporadic in
this spot, and given the fact we were near a nodal crossing of
J3/Linear, this is very likely to be a valid Linearid observation.
I would only argue with the term "very likely". It most certainly a
POSSIBLE Linearid. But one meteor by itself proves nothing.
Also, there were 2 other observers who reported a total of 9 Linearids
between 10Nov 2323Z - 11Nov 0424Z, with no activity before and after
this time span. My single Linearid occurred at 11Nov 0345Z, and none were
seen after that time up to 0715Z, when I ceased observation.
However there were higher rates reported on earlier days, but even these
must be considered suspect until a full analysis has been completed.
Again, I am not suggesting that what you saw was definitely not a Linearid.
But one must use extreme caution in stating unequivocally that it IS a
Linearid. It's just that when one is dealing with very low meteor counts,
using large correction factors, and observers using different methods and
having different skill levels, some major analysis must go on before
"proof" that a shower exists can be claimed. If you want proof, then
chopped meteor photographs, or intensified video observations, where
radiant and speed can be determined to extremely accurate levels, are
required.
This corroborates my observation and indicates a small burst of activity
around this time.
That is certainly a possibility. However, it has not been proven yet, and I
urge caution to all in interpreting the data reported so far. And on behalf
of Rainer, I also wish to thank all those who were lucky enough to have
clear skies and the time to observe and report their observations. It is
the data from dedicated observers such as yourself which will allow us to
unravel these mysteries.
M. Linnolt
Wayne T Hally
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