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(meteorobs) Joe Rao's Leonid Adventure
WELL . . . I DID PROMISE THEM A BIG SHOWER . . .
By Joe Rao
"A location blessed by its proximity to the one of the world's persistent
high pressure systems - namely the Azores High which can create a haven of
clear nighttime weather - is the Canary Islands."
Meteorologist Jay Anderson
Environment Canada
I had missed out as a 10-year-old boy in seeing any part of the now
legendary 1966 Leonid meteor storm, thanks to cloudy skies. In 1969, I
stepped out into my Bronx backyard only to catch the final few moments of an
unexpected Leonid outburst, which had, only minutes earlier produced a brief
bevy of nearly 300 meteors per hour. Last year, drizzle and fog blocked my
view of the very impressive Leonid fireball shower. So, needless to say with
the potential of an impending storm of Leonid meteors I had a set forth a
"meteor mandate" for this year: I would most definitely position myself at a
favorable longitude for seeing the anticipated peak of the Leonids and be at
a location where the probability of favorable weather would be high.
My eventual decision would be to lead a tour to view the Leonids from
Lanzarote, the easternmost of the Canary Islands. Long-term records had
revealed a nearly 70% frequency of clear skies or scattered cloudiness during
the nighttime hours in mid-November. Couple this with overnight temperatures
in the comfortable mid 60's (F.) and it seemed an excellent location for
meteor watching. The tour would start out in Madrid, Spain on November 13th,
then work its way to Lanzarote by November 16th.
Thanks to Mr. Liberal Lopes of Skyline Travel of Huntington, New York, we
even managed to coerce the initially-reluctant Spanish government to open up
their Timanfaya Volcano Park to us during the after-dark hours for the "big
night" of November 17-18 - a very unique circumstance!
A total of 77 people signed-on for our "Pursuit of the Leonids." My wife
Renate and two children, Joseph (9) and Maria (6) accompanied me. While many
of the participants were from the northeastern U.S., quite a few others came
from more distant locations such as South Carolina, Michigan, Arizona,
California and even from London, England! On the evening of November 15th, I
gave a slide presentation to our group and spoke of the potential of viewing
a big shower. My personal prediction was for rates of anywhere from 2000 to
6000 per hour. I felt that this sudden surge of activity would happen
somewhere within a "window" running from 2:08 to 4:17 a.m. UT on November
18th. I was actually pretty confident that we would be treated to a most
interesting display. The only thing we needed was good weather . . . and the
climatological odds were excellent for that to occur on Lanzarote.
BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO
As climatology had predicted, there was a huge (1040 millibar)
high-pressure system centered near the Azores. This high was causing a gusty
northeasterly trade wind pattern, typical for the Canaries for this time of
year. Unfortunately, also overlying the region was an upper-level trough of
low pressure that produced a rather moist and unstable environment. The
trades were continuously bringing in periodic intervals of overcast skies
occasionally accompanied by brief showers. For our first night on Lanzarote,
we looked for early Leonids from the north end of the island on the grounds
of Jameos De Agua (which contained a beautiful formation of underground
caves). Sky conditions varied from broken to scattered clouds and we caught
sight of a few forerunners of the impending big display.
The following day - November 17 - I carefully watched the ever-changing
sky conditions over the island. It was readily apparent that there was a
fairly reliable four-hour cycle where we would go from perfectly clear skies,
back to a growing overcast, a brief hard rain shower, then back again to a
renewed clearing trend. Almost like clockwork, this was the way things
progressed right from sunup through sundown. As our group sat down to dinner
at the El Diablo Restaurant (where we had our dinner cooked over a dry well
with steam from the volcano), clear skies once again began giving way to a
build-up of cloud cover. We all knew that another round of rain showers
would soon be arriving; but would the residual clouds break in time for
viewing the prospective Leonid peak in just a few hours? From our observing
position on the summit of the 1,200-foot Montanas del Fuego we were
surrounded by an eerie landscape reminiscent of being on the Moon. Given
clear skies, we would have an incredible backdrop for viewing that night's
Leonid display.
The rain began falling again soon after 9 p.m. But this time, instead of
the clouds breaking up as soon as the rain came to an end, they now
stubbornly held their place. Then another, heavier bout of rain moved
through, followed by an all-out squall at around midnight. It was also about
this time that the Lanzarote news media arrived. The local television
station interviewed tour participants, while a reporter from the newspaper
"La Provincia de Lanzarote" asked questions about why some of us trekked more
than a quarter of a way around the globe apparently to be in the middle of
nowhere on this particular night. (In the Friday edition of the paper the
story about our escapade would appear, with the headline: "Lluvia si, pero
esta vez no fue de estrellas" or "Rain yes, but not of the stars.") Nearby,
one of the locals could be heard musing: "No puedo creer esto. Es la
primera lluvia significativa que hemos visto alrededor aqui desde enero!" ("I
can't believe this. It is the first significant rain we've seen around here
since January!") A few small breaks in the clouds appeared at around 1 a.m.,
enabling us to glimpse the setting gibbous Moon, Jupiter and one or two of
the brighter stars. But hopes for clearing skies faded a half-hour later as
a light drizzle began to fall. By 1:45 we finally abandoned all hope for any
significant improvement in the weather. These clouds were not going to
break, at least not locally. But far off in the distance - toward the north
and east - we could see a few breaks and rifts in the clouds. We quickly
piled our group back into our double-decker bus and vacated our "perfect
observing site" in search of clearer skies. We didn't have much time: the
opening of my predicted "window of opportunity" for getting a view of the
possible Leonid peak less than 20 minutes away.
THE ISLAND WASN'T BIG ENOUGH!
Our bus driver raced northward at a rapid pace. My face was pressed up
against the window desperately looking for any large openings in the clouds.
Finally, just before 2:30 a.m., we pulled off a deserted side road. I jumped
out of the bus and looked skyward. There above us was a fairly large hole in
the clouds, roughly 30 by 50 degrees, from which I could clearly see Orion
and some of the familiar retinue of winter constellations. But more
importantly, I was also seeing meteors - Leonids - coming in fairly rapid
succession. Within less than 20 seconds I caught sight of two short ones of
roughly third magnitude, followed by a bright blue-green zero magnitude
streak. "EVERYBODY OUT!" I yelled. Quickly the bus emptied, but that clear
space was now closing rapidly. Nonetheless, Leonids continued to streak
across our line of sight in a general east-to-west direction. Karen Gerry, a
long-time member of the Astronomical Society of Long Island (ASLI) clicked
off 11 Leonids in just 3 minutes on a pocket counter. That would correspond
to an hourly rate of 220 - and that was just through a small clear space!
Alas, in less than 15 minutes, our oasis of starry sky had vanished and it
began to drizzle once again. We again boarded the bus and again set out to
look for breaks in the clouds. By 3:30, however, I made an announcement that
we were heading back to our hotel so as to drop off those who wished to call
it a night. If anybody wanted to remain in our search for clear skies, they
could stay on the bus. To my surprise, more than half elected to stay. We
pulled away from the hotel just after 4 a.m. and continued heading to the
north. Finally, at around 4:30 when we had reached the northernmost tip of
Lanzarote, I stepped off of the bus and cast a gaze at gloomy, overcast sky.
It was then that Luis Lopez, one of our tour escorts put his hand on my
shoulder and said, "I'm sorry Joe, it looks like we've just run out of
Island." It was a very quiet bus ride back to the hotel.
ON THE ROAD TO MOROCCO!
Not everyone failed in the attempt to catch the Leonid peak. Eight of
our group made a last minute decision during the early evening of Wednesday,
the 17th, to charter a Beechcraft 1200 airplane and fly to Morocco in search
of clearer skies. Joel Moskowitz, Craig Small, Glenn Schneider, John
Beattie, Gregory and Patricia Wright and their two young sons Grant and Gage
(ages 10 and 8) landed late that night at El Jadida, then took three taxis
approximately 30 kilometers inland to a dark, secluded location where they
could watch for the meteors. According to Mr. Moskowitz, " . . . there was
about a 15 to 20 minute interval centered on 2:10 UT where Leonids were
apparently coming at an average rate of one or two per second (3,600 to 7,200
per hour). Most were not exceptionally bright, though a few bright fireballs
were noted." Mr. Moskowitz also commented that the rise in activity prior to
and its subsequent decline after the peak was exceptionally pronounced. One
unsettling drawback to this little adventure was that the little group were
under constant scrutiny by local gendarme - thinking perhaps that they
perhaps were undercover smugglers almost to the point of having their
passports confiscated. The group was eventually allowed to proceed on their
way however, probably only because of the presence of the Wright's two
children. Said Gregory Wright later: "It ultimately turned out to be a very
unnerving experience to say the least!"
NEXT YEAR: IT'S ON OUR TURF!
The third and final night on Lanzarote saw our group stargazing from
the north end of the island from the beautiful Mirador Del Rio with its high
plateaus and steep cliffs overlooking the Atlantic Ocean. We observed under
skies that varied from scattered clouds to at times even clear. It was the
kind of weather that we had fully expected and hoped for for all three
nights, but so far as the meteor storm was concerned it materialized one
night too late! As I gave my final star lecture I ruefully commented that in
astronomy timing can be everything: "The cloud of meteoric material that
produced last night's big meteor show had been originally ejected from the
Tempel-Tuttle comet a hundred years ago. Those meteoroids had swung around
the Sun three times before interacting with Earth last night. One hundred
years, but for us, just one day too early!"
In the aftermath of our failure to observe the 1999 Leonids, most of the
tour participants (my sister jokingly referred to them as my "Leonid
disciples.") came up to me to inquire as to what were our prospects for
seeing heavy Leonid activity in future years. Not a few asked where I
planned to observe the "Y2K Leonids." My reply to such a question was one of
mock surprise. "Going back to 1966, I'm now zero-for-four with this shower.
So far as getting a view of the Leonids are concerned, I'm sort of a hangnail
on the fickle finger of fate." I was thinking later that these folks
probably wanted to know where I was planning to be - so that they could head
in the opposite direction!
After meteor enthusiasts have slogged to all corners of the globe to
chase the Leonids during these past two years, there is some good news to
report for next year. It appears that eastern North America may be among the
best places to be to observe any possible enhanced Leonid activity. There
will actually be two nights to watch for any possible outburst. The Earth
will pass through the orbital plane of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, 989 days after the
comet itself, at 07:53 UT (2:53 a.m. EST) on November 17th. Then, the
following night (November 18th) according to David Asher of Armagh
Observatory and Rob McNaught of the Australian National University, the Earth
is expected to come close to two meteor trails that "could" produce many
meteors. The first trail of debris, expelled from 55P in 1733 - and which
previously gave rise to a Leonid storm in 1866 - will be closest to Earth at
03:44 UT, which would favor Europe and Africa, but a second trail, passing by
at 07:51 UT (2:51 a.m. EST) would again favor eastern North America. As to
what these trails could produce, in the wake of last week's event predictions
concerning potential meteor rates are likely open to debate. In their most
recent update Asher and McNaught suggested ZHR's only in the 20-30 range in
the year 2000. If no meteor storm materializes, then they suggest, " . . .
wait for 2001 and/or 2002." According to their calculations, the Americas
could be poised for a major Leonid storm in the latter year, though - in
fairness - it should be noted here that Earth will be trailing 55P by more
than 56 months and there has never been a major Leonid storm observed so far
behind the parent body.
The biggest drawback to next year's Leonids is the situation regarding
the Moon: a bright waxing gibbous on the morning of November 17th, it will be
situated in Cancer just to the east of the Beehive Star Cluster. The
following night, the Moon, now at Last Quarter, will be sitting just to the
west of Sickle of Leo.
HOPE SPRINGS ENTERNAL
"I don't think you have anything in that black bag for me."
-- Dorothy Gale
in the "Wizard of Oz"
Well . . . that's my report on my pursuit of the Leonids. I promised the
tour participants a big shower of meteors - unfortunately they were of the
hydro variety! I must say that virtually everybody had a great time visiting
Spain and exploring the exotic sights of Lanzarote. As we gathered at the
airport in Madrid for our flight home, most came up to me and said that
despite the poor weather they still got a lot out of our eight-day tour. "A
successful failure," is how I eventually labeled it. But of course, despite
everyone else being pleased overall with what they saw, I came away from this
experience bitterly disappointed, the big prize still eluding my grasp. Well
. . . as they used to say in Brooklyn: "Better luck next year!"
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