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Re: (meteorobs) Science News on Leonid




Robert Gardner kindly summarized a Science Times article on the Leonids for our
list. Thanks for doing so, Robert! BTW, though, one caveat:


>It quotes Asher and McNaught as predicting that 2001 will be a puny
>shower. However the 2002 will be a great show exceeding last months.

FYI, this doesn't match my reading of Rob McNaught's fine Web site:

    http://www.atnf.csiro.au/asa_www/leonids.html

According to a table at that site, both 2001 and 2002 are predicted to have
unusually high Leonid rates - between 1500 and 15000 tentatively - at least from
CERTAIN lucky longitudes around the globe!



And sure enough, reading the referenced Science News article, I see:

>Next year, McNaught and Asher calculate, Earth will pass for the first time
>through the edge of a band of dust cast off by the comet in 1866, yielding a
>puny shower. In 2001, however, Earth will plow sequentially through no less
>than three trails - debris expelled in 1767, 1699, and 1866 - and the light
>show should prove more stunning than last month's. In 2002, when Earth again
>encounters material from 1866, as well as from 1933, the Leonids should also
>put on a great show, McNaught and Asher say.

Keep in mind too, that the moon will be very close to Full for the 2002 peak!
Thus any outburst which was heavily weighted toward faint meteors would be
severely reduced by lunar skyglow. Also predicted longitudes for 2002 are from
Western Europe into the Atlantic. In 2001 by contrast, the moon will be nearly
New, and outbursts seem to be predicted to have a chance of occuring from North
America all the way across the Pacific to Eastern Asia.

As Asher, McNaught, Peter Brown, Peter Jenniskens, Joe Rao and others refine
their models based on this year's data, we're sure to see many more predictions
of when, whether and how much the Leonids will storm in future!


Clear skies,
Lew Gramer


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