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Re: (meteorobs) Weather predicting
In a message dated 12/19/99 6:42:30 PM Eastern Standard Time,
CindeeMcC@aol.com writes:
<< You don't by any chance have an essay of yours like "A Quick and Easy
Non-scientist's Guide to Weather Forcasting" would you? >>
Unfortunately, no. I must say that I've been in the weather business for
over 21 years and it is difficult to translate what one has learned through
many years of empiricism. And of course . . . the various computer models
sometimes -- in mulling over a specific numerical solution -- have a tendency
to "change their minds" at the last minute. You sometimes have to know what
model to discard (in essence, which is not "telling the truth"). This type
of gut intuition is only acquired after you've watched a number of forecasts
blow up in your face. I tell people that since 1978 I've made something like
275,000 radio/t.v. weather forecasts. I think I have a batting average of
about 85% -- not bad of course, until I realize that also means that I've
blown about 41,250 weathercasts!
This is a very humbling business!
-- joe rao
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