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Re: (meteorobs) Recording storms
In a message dated 12/22/99 1:20:43 PM Eastern Standard Time,
dfischer@astro.uni-bonndot de writes:
<< It *will* storm in 2001 and 2002, probably at least as wild
als in 1999, and after the 2000 Leonids we will know much better what to
expect. >>
Just to throw my two cents in here . . . I have not the slightest doubt
that David and Rob's predictions for the peak times of predicted enhanced
activity in the coming years will verify, probably even within minutes of a
particular prediction for a given year.
Unfortunately, while the problem of getting the timing seems not to be so
much a problem, the predictions concerning the actual expected rates is still
open (I think) to some debate. From a historical standpoint -- in fairness
-- it should be pointed out (at least in recent historical times) that we
have never had a Leonid storm of the magnitude of tens of thousands per hour
at distances of 44 to 56 months after the parent comet's (55P) nodal
crossing.
In addition, in the case of the 2002 Leonids, we here in America will
have to cope with a gibbous Moon, just day past full phase. If the 2002
Leonids have a population index similar to those in 1999, a large number of
the meteors that fall will be obscured by bright moonlight. As the late Roy
K. Marshall said in Sky & Telescope prior to the 1946 Giacobinids: "The full
Moon will probably kill off a majority of the meteors . . . may'be we'll see
only a thousand per hour!"
To be sure . . . activity in 2000 may help to "tweak" the predictions for
2001 and 2002, but I think this is going to be a rather contentious issue
right on through these next few years.
-- joe rao
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