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(meteorobs) [IMO-News] Leonids 2000-2006
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Thanks!
Lew Gramer <owner-meteorobs@jovian.com>
------- Forwarded Message
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 13:52:55 -0400 (GMT-0400)
From: Ignacio Ramon Ferrin Vasquez <ferrin@ciens.ula.ve>
X-Sender: ferrin@tenar
To: imo-news@imodot net
Subject: [IMO-News] Leonids 2000-2006
Letter to IMO:
The remarkable achievement of Asher and McNaught, who predicted
the time of the Leonids meteor shower with a very small error, has been
recognized in several publications.
However it should be remembered, that a prediction of a meteor
shower involves two quantities, intensity and time. The time prediction
was excelent. Let us compare the predicted intensities compiled in the
table below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Authors \ Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Asher and McNaught(1999) 500 20?to 15000 25000 100
(IMO Letter of Nov. 9th. 1999) +1500 30?
-300
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Rao (1999) 2000to
6000
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Isolines Method(1999) 3500 5000to 400 100 20
+-1000 20000
---------------------------------------------------------------------
OBSERVED 3700
(WGN, 27:6, Dec. 1999, p286) +-100
---------------------------------------------------------------------
It can be seen that the Isolines Method (Ferrin, Astron. Astrophy., V.
238, p. 295-299, 1999) gave the best prediction. From this we can conclude that
the Isolines Method has some predictive power.
The situation becomes rather interesting for the coming years. While
Asher and McNaught predict a very poor shower for 2000, with an intensity of 20
to 30, the Isolines Method predicts a very intense shower of 5000 < ZHR < 20000,
better than in 1999. The only difficulty in confirming this activity is that
the moon is going to interfere in the observations.
For the year 2001 and 2002, the Isolines Method predicts very minor
showers, diminishing with the year. On the contrary Asher and McNaught predict
an intense shower in 2001 and even more intense in 2002, a very different
result.
This is good for science, because we will soon know which one of two
methods have the best predictive power. It is also good for everybody, because
both predictions predict intense showers in the coming years!
The best is yet to come!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
------- End of Forwarded Message
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