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Re: (meteorobs) Re: What? A Leonid storm in *1886*?!?



For those who do not have the issue of Nature handy, I am extracting the
complete story alluded to in this message thread from my files and have
pasted it below.

===========================================

Nature, 61 (1900 March 22), p. 491

Leonid Meteor Storms

   "I have nowhere seen an account of a very remarkable display of these
meteors visible here (in Shanghai) on the morning of November 15, 1886.
Though the date is distant, it may be of use to record it, as it may throw
light on the conditions of the orbit.
   "I was sleeping in a room with an almost due north exposure looking into
an open compound, and chanced to wake up about three in the morning, when I
saw a number of meteors flashing across the window. I got up on
recollecting the date, and for about an hour witnessed the most brilliant
pyrotechnic display I have ever seen.
   "The meteors were flying in every direction from the radiant point in
numbers past all calculation, and the intensity of the shower was keep up
without intermission the whole of the time I was gazing.
   "I expected to hear from other quarters an account of the phenomenon,
and was much surprised to find it had apparently not been noticed
elsewhere. I had to leave shortly after for the interior, where I was
practically cut off from communication with the outer world for some
months, and hence did not at the time report the fact.
   "As much stress is laid on the appearance of the meteors in Europe in
1833 and 1866, the shower may be of some interest.

"Shanghai, February 12          Thos. W. Kingsmill."

===========================================

As indicated in the earlier e-mail on this topic there are no other
references to this display and I really never knew what to do with it while
doing my research. I do conclude that this report must fit into one of the
following three areas:

1. This might be a real event that no one else every reported, in which
case it will be important to the research on Leonid dust trails just as
David Asher said.

2. With so much time having elapsed before Kingsmill sent the above letter
to Nature, maybe there was an error in the year, although, I admit, this
seems to be the aspect of the display that most interested Kingsmill.

3. Perhaps Kingsmill was using a different calendar system. Some countries
did not switch from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar immediately
following 1582. In fact, the Soviet Union did not switch until 1918 and
Greece did not switch until 1923. This makes astronomical research quite
challenging at times. It is interesting to note that if Kingsmill was still
using the Julian calendar, then a conversion of his November 15 date to the
Gregorian calendar would result in a date of November 27, 1886. This
"converted" date closely matches the date of maximum of the
Andromedid/Bielid meteor stream.

Maybe the real answer to this is some combination of two of the three
points above. If points one and three are combined we get a potentially
real Andromedid/Bielid event. If points two and three are combined we get a
date that comes close to matching the Andromedid/Bielid outburst of 1885.

I, for one, would love to see if it can somehow be worked into the models
of Asher and Rob McNaught. It would certainly add an interesting twist to
the predictability of the Leonids. Maybe this would explain why the Koreans
reported strong displays that were near the Leonid longitude in 1554 and
1625--two additional dates which seem to seriously conflict with the
33-year cycle.

Gary


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