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(meteorobs) re: shower predictions



Re Lew Gramers comments on "find meteors first, then parent after".

I couldn't agree more, believe it or not!

eg eta Lyrids: good case, meteors 1st, then comet, then meteors, etc.

eg P/2000 G1 LINEAR : that was/is just an intriguing little so & so that
deserved a look-see, years off yet, if ever...

eg Last year's [NOV 1999] LINEARids case: I found no real candidates in
IAUC data, so thought little of it. Have heard little evidence re
"reality", though Ondrejov radar apparently detected an upsurge [???]

eg P/Tilbrook 1999 A1 : found several possible archived meteor orbits
similar to it.  Noted it to a couple of folk, but left it.  In the end no
shower occured on Dec 13 1999 emanating from UMa, the expected radiant
[although there was those Geminid things...]

eg 2000 HD74 : this one caught me unawares, as they say, and Mike Linnolt's
gripe about "you could have said earlier" re the eta Lyrids was still
ringing in the ears a bit..., and it's nearly May 17th here now!

Lew Gramer is quite right though, a v.important topic for debate.

After all, if somebody says SS Cyg has blown up tonight and it is at mag
8.2, it is damned hard to be sure whether you are biased or not if you look
at it and you also think it is at mag 8.2!!!!

Then again, forewarned is forearmed.  If somebody tells you about festoons
on Jupiter's belts, you suddenly start seeing them, once you know what to
look for.

Cheers to all

John

JG UK

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