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Re: (meteorobs) aurora map
At 17:40 06/08/2000 -0400, you wrote:
>
>
> You can get a good, almost real-time aurora map of both hemispheres at
>the URL below. Its from the NOAA POES satellite and I think passes each
>pole once per hour or so. If the current activity continues tonight will
>be a good night for mid-latitude areas.
>
>http://www.sec.noaadot gov/pmap/pmapN.html
Only problem is that map rarely actually shows what's REALLY happening.
There are a number of other references, including the Canadian CANOPUS
graph, which have proven more accurate, particularly in detecting radio
aurora. One page that puts a number of links in one place is
http://members.mintdot net/n1bug/prop/aumon/aufr.html
At the moment, the page author, Paul Kelley, is experimenting with several
other special prediction images but until they prove their utility and
accuracy, he won't provide an actual link to them.
One of the more critical aspects of the solar wind to cause visible or
radio aurora on earth was described by Paul this morning on another reflector:
"The shock front passed the ACE and SoHO spacecraft at 0845 UTC,
reaching Earth shortly afterward. It was an impressive shock, with
solar wind speed abruptly increasing from just over 500 to in excess
of 800 km/s. See:
http://sec.noaadot gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
http://umtof.umddot edu/pm
"Much depends now on the timing of the arrival of the main part of the
disturbance and the orientation of the solar wind magnetic field when
it does arrive (the red Bz plot in the ACE data - southward Bz being
required for a strong geomagnetic impact). The timing might be good
for North America for once! There is a good possibility the
disturbance / aurora may be well underway just about the time we
enter late afternoon / evening.
"Early on in the disturbance the geomagnetic field is behaving
erratically, owing largely to fluctuating IMF orientation (Bz). It
should be an interesting day to watch."
At the moment, the high clouds I lamented so fiercely about several hours
ago have abated but there's still some high haze and a few spotty clouds
here and there. The sun won't set here in central Massachusetts for another
hour or so, so I dunno whether there's gonna be anything to see. However,
the Rice University dials, which show data for the solar wind, indicate
that the density has already dropped considerably as has the velocity. The
angle is now mostly neutral; it usually needs to be strongly southerly to
generate noticeable aurora.
And there's still at least one more Coronal Mass Ejection on its way here;
so we still may see some good stuff this weekend.
SteveH
Shrewsbury MA
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