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Re: (meteorobs) Two questions about Leonids 2000
> of the 2000 Leonids peak. Because if I refered to the NASA site it can
> be of 30 according to David Asher and Rob McNaught to 215 or 700 for
> Esko Lyytinen and Tom Van Flandern for the first peak at 7:50 or 7:51
> UT, and it can be of 20 or 700 respectively for the second peak at 3:40
> or 3:44 UT. So, I'd like to know if the analyse of the 1999 Leonids
> storm had permits to precise the estimations.
Karl,
David and I have never made a bold claim about 2000 and we have never
said that high rates could not occur. Our analysis, that relies heavily
on ZHR estimates from the last 200 years. All we can say is that there
is no historical data that allows us to calibrate our analysis for 2000.
While we suspect rates will be low, we cannot, and do not, discount
the possibility for high rates. The situation for 2001 and 2002 is
rather different. The geometry of encounter is similar to that
experienced during the last 200 years, so we feel more confident in
high rates in these years.
Cheers, Rob
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