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(meteorobs) The Y2K Leonids: what if it's cloudy?

    I had a nice phone chat last evening with meteorobs contributor George 
Gliba of Maryland, concerning the upcoming Leonid shower, now only 24 days 
away.  One of the things that we discussed was the weather conditions for the 
nights of November 16-17 and 17-18.  Obviously, all of us want these two 
nights free of any cloud cover, but the question that comes to my mind is . . 
. if bad weather does unfortunately occur, would a person be interested in 
traveling to a location where it was clear?  And just how far would that 
person go? 

    Since it appears the US East Coast is favored this year, one might have 
to travel a maximum of nearly 1000 miles up or down the Atlantic Seaboard 
depending on the normal tempestuous mid-November weather.  Stringing together 
two consecutive clear nights at this time of year is not impossible, but for 
some areas (from a climatological viewpoint) very difficult!  In parts of 
northern New York and northern New England, for example, the mean cloud 
percentages are in the 80-85% range.  Conversely, November is the clearest 
month of the year for much of Florida and the coastal Carolinas, with 
cloudiness just in the 45-50% range.

    I can only speak for myself in saying that after having been wiped-out of 
the last two years of Leonid activity (the fireball display of '98; the storm 
of '99), I don't intend to have that happen again.  I have already put in for 
two off-days from my job (Thursday, November 16 and Friday, November 17) and 
intend to travel to where ever the skies are expected to be clear for those 
two nights. I believe that using the state-of-the-art ensemble of long-range 
computer models, that I will have a fairly good idea of which region 
(Northeast, Middle Atlantic, Southeast) has the best shot at clear weather 
about 5 to 7 days in advance.  I would then start making definitive 
preparations to head in that direction for viewing the Leonids.

    I wondered out loud to George if there were anybody else on this list 
that would be willing to do something like this -- travel, perhaps a bit of a 
distance if necessary -- to view this year's "Y2K Leonids?"  Of course, were 
it not clear locally (I live on Long Island, NY) and I were forced to 
consider a site, say, in the Carolinas, it would be necessary to start 
scrounging around to find cheap airfares . . . book a hotel and of course, 
try and locate a suitable dark-sky site for observing over the important 
two-night viewing period of the 17th/18th.  All within perhaps a week's time!

    I know that last year, there were folks who traveled all over Europe at a 
moment's notice to get into a region of clear sky . . . and that preparations 
are already being made by some groups for next year's Leonids.  But what 
about this year?  I know that the Moon's phase and the uncertainties of the 
activity rates for this year are drawbacks, but still . . . if skies are 
overcast in your area on one (or both) of the Leonid nights, are you willing 
to simply sit back and say to yourself: "Oh well, maybe another year" (not 
too many of those left!), or might you consider making a run for it?

I'd be curious to know how many folks out there have similar thoughts
and suggestions . . . 
-- joe rao         
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