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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid weather prospects from Florida

Joe and others,

November is indeed a better month for Florida in recent years for clear
skies, or at least for fewer wipeouts.  I would estimate nearly 2/3 of
Leonid maxima have been at least partially clear here.

The Florida west coast is generally the more favorable side.  There is
usually a strong easterly flow coming off the Atlantic this time of year
with varying amounts of cloudiness.  The east coast gets the clouds full
strength.  Crossing a hundred miles of land to reach the west coast helps
the clouds to partially, and often completely, dissipate.  If a large cloud
patch is coming across, good north-south roads can be used to quickly relocate.

On average I expect the Keys to be cloudier than here due to full exposure
to water.  There is no land mass down there to break up clouds.  But a badly
placed stationary front over the mainland could be escaped by going to the Keys.

Cold fronts can either help or hinder.  Ideally I want to have a front with
enough support to push all the way to Cuba, if one has to come at all.
Stalling in the Florida Straits is not uncommon -- it's just far enough away
from here to probably be clear anyway.  Gulf storms this far south are rare.
The usual storm track runs along the north Gulf coast, then up the U.S. East
Coast.

If night winds are light or calm with clear skies and high dew points,
radiation fog becomes a major problem north of Fort Myers.  I am near the
general southern limit for fog -- it is rare south of Naples and across the
Everglades.  Closer to the Gulf might help some as night temperatures stay
warmer there.  Sea fog is a different matter, more likely in January with
very unstable moist air around.

The tropics have quieted down rapidly this year after a very busy September.
The Caribbean area has been mostly clear for a couple of weeks.  That will
help reduce the chance of a problem coming up the back way.  With neither El
Nino nor La Nina around this season, I feel more confident that weather will
be more stable this fall.

For observing sites, one possibility would be flying into Miami
International, then heading west into the Everglades.  There are a number of
spots along US 41, especially around small lakes or rockpits, where some
quick observing can be done.  The sky begins to get reasonable just 30 miles
out of Miami as the urban sprawl ends suddenly with few lights further out.
Face west to avoid the moon and also the Miami light dome.  The same
principle would apply anywhere : be west of your problem city if possible.

I hope to be at my usual Lehigh Acres site.  There are a number of astro
groups around Florida with their own good sites to visit.  I'm not familiar
with individual parks as I haven't had to use them.  The region north of
Tampa is rather wide-open and less populated, and there should be many good
spots to go along roads or just off to the side.  Several state forests also
have potential.

Norman













Norman W. McLeod III
Staff Advisor
American Meteor Society

Fort Myers, Florida
nmcleod@peganet.com

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